zombe on 12/4/2020 at 20:47
I don't like this ...
(
https://postimg.cc/CdKFN9bn)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/CdKFN9bn/cov19c.pngReminder:
blue = daily new cases
green = daily tests
red = trend-line for daily new cases (slope of the exponential lines is at the top of graphs)
yellow = daily deaths
dark red = open cases (ie. alive and still infected) as reported
S.Korea: Had a relatively small outbreak that never reached 1000 new cases at any day due of their prompt action. Very mild restrictions exposed, but extensive testing and cultural effects have kept the spread under control. For the longest of time was not growing and not dying out either - which is weird. Some unexpectedly stable equilibrium point manifested itself. Except, that lately, it broke free from it and is now dropping.
Estonia: Our graph somewhat resembles Korea equilibrium line - just at a lower average point and hence much more noisy. Reminder: the highest peak is a counting artifact - it, in effect, combines stats from two days into one. I heard there are plans in the works to start mass testing in our hot-spot island ... will see. Not sure what testing strategy will be employed - i presume it involves some antibody testing too. Or perhaps the idea is to use standard tests just to find all the infected using brute force method in hotspots. Don't yet know.
Italia: I really do not like this. The decline is slow and consistent (on log scale).
Way too slow and consistently so. Good news one might have noticed - there has been a big jump in testing (might not be clear in log scale, but it went from 35K tops to 50K+ region some 4-5 days ago) with only a minor increase in new cases in response. All-in-all ... i am worried.
Germany: Still do not have any testing data - only an
estimated value at various times is known. Latest one of them marked on graph. It seems they do decent testing and daily deaths are relatively low too. New cases have a multi-day-sinus pattern ... weird. Reporting delay artifact? Anyway, new cases are dropping - which is nice - but quite slowly - which is less nice.
Spain: Nearly no testing data at all. Estimates place it in the "quite bad" region. Otherwise, seems the new-case explosion really stopped and the decline is real. And again - too damn slow decline. Seems that everyone has a agonizingly long tail-decline to deal with.
France: What are you doing? First you use some creative counting/reporting (read: omitting reports) - causing a huge correction peak. Then your, presumably, reporting delay artifacts get just plain silly. Third - looking through the noise and artifacts - the graph is going the wrong way! It should be decidedly pointing down already - not flapping around the 1.00-1.05 line. And of course, no testing data to speak of. Estimates place it in the "worst of all (that i track)" range - which i hope is very wrong.
USA: Reached a weird 30K plateau of new cases per day for the time being. Checked test reporting for a few days to see which values can be trusted - less than ~60% left in trustworthy list. Overall - testing is an uncoordinated mess of whatever. Some clearly struggle. Some don't really report anything. Some do fine. What the fuck is the CDC for? How can you have anything resembling a coordinated response for this crisis? I assume they do some counting internally - in secret for some reason. Or maybe not ... why else you need this: (
https://covidtracking.com/about-project) . Also, why does the testing-in-us page at CDC look like some embarrassing garbage one put out on myspace and then promptly forgot about it? There is hope for good news though: new case counts for many states has slowed down in recent days. If that is not an anomaly and keeps up - perhaps nationwide peak is in sight (ie. the declining ones will overtake the rising ones)? Maybe. All i can see is a mess - so, who knows.
lowenz on 12/4/2020 at 21:50
Quote Posted by zombe
Italia: I really do not like this. The decline is slow and consistent (on log scale).
Way too slow and consistently so. Good news one might have noticed - there has been a big jump in testing (might not be clear in log scale, but it went from 35K tops to 50K+ region some 4-5 days ago) with only a minor increase in new cases in response. All-in-all ... i am worried.
Yes, more infected (in Milan) but deaths eventually did go down.
Here in Lombardy only 110 today!
Renzatic on 13/4/2020 at 02:10
So I'm sheltering at home, and there's a bunch of tornadoes going on. 2020 really sucks.
Gray on 13/4/2020 at 02:26
Maybe you've already been through this in this thread, some 15 pages ago, but it keeps growing so quickly I can't read all of it.
It's a strange new world. We can't go out, except to hunt for food. Streets are empty. Every street looks like the start of a zombie movie. You're not allowed to touch your loved ones. Several dystopian books and movies spring to mind, but the one that stayed with me the most is something I can't quite remember. Perhaps you can help me. I assume you're familiar with the Rodin sculpture "(
https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/rodin-the-kiss-n06228) The Kiss". Somewhere at the back of my mind there's a 1930s sci-fi, dystopian version of that, or maybe 1950s. Maybe Isaac Asimov or people of that era. In my memory, the two lovers of Rodin's sculpture are wearing full-on hazmat suits, they can't quite kiss, but at least embrace except never actually touch each other. Has anyone else seen this picture? In the story (that I can't remember) they're wearing hazmat suits to protect from radiation, but I'm just looking for the image, given that it seems quite appropriate now. We may have the love, we just don't have the touch. Does anybody else remember this picture? My memory is so vague I can't phrase it well enough for a google search, but people with actual working brains might remember it.
[Edit]
I'm not looking for the robots kissing in the Rodin fashion, I'm looking the the hazmat suits version. The one that, sadly, applies to modern life.
Pyrian on 13/4/2020 at 03:01
Quote Posted by Renzatic
So I'm sheltering at home, and there's a bunch of tornadoes going on.
Shelter in Oz.
SubJeff on 13/4/2020 at 04:37
Quote Posted by Gray
You're not allowed to touch your loved ones.
If you live with them it's fine.
Gray on 13/4/2020 at 05:10
Tricky thing is that the woman I love lives three minutes away in another house. So, for the last three weeks, I'm not allowed to touch her. Not even a hug. It feels very dystopian. Yes, I get it, contain the virus. It just sucks. Emojis can only do so much. And my poetry is even worse.
lowenz on 13/4/2020 at 06:31
Quote Posted by Gray
It feels very dystopian.
It would be emotionally MUCH worse if you infect a loved one and he/she dies (not very likely in young people under 30s but very likely in elder people over 70s).
SubJeff on 13/4/2020 at 07:27
Quote Posted by Gray
Tricky thing is that the woman I love lives three minutes away in another house. So, for the last three weeks, I'm not allowed to touch her. Not even a hug. It feels very dystopian. Yes, I get it, contain the virus. It just sucks. Emojis can only do so much. And my poetry is even worse.
If you both live alone... move in together?
