lowenz on 31/3/2020 at 13:51
Quote Posted by lowenz
About the numbers "all wrong" here in Lombardy: (
https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/accessi-in-calo-ai-pronto-soccorso-ma-la-verita-e-che-non-ce-piu-posto_1347007_11/?attach_a_&src=img&site_source=RelatedBottomImg-1347007)
(please google translate)
This epidemic is clearly showing that the social and health care reform in Lombardy was a fool, it failed on all fronts. And certain official numbers have the air of a manipulation to save certain heads ». The president of the Order of doctors of Bergamo is not subtle, nor is Paola Pedrini, regional secretary of Fimmg, Italian Federation of general practitioners . " More and more unreliable numbers are spread by the authorities, we would not want the confusion to hide the responsibility of the generals in the Caporetto of Italian public health- points out - . True, patients' requests to family doctors, at least in Lombardy, seem to be decreasing, but we are very worried that this news is misleading public opinion. A wrong message is passing, that the access to the emergency room is decreasing so the agent is afraid to go there or the family doctors send them too late.
Those of us who are working on the front line cannot afford the luxury of chatter: it is clear that people would go to the hospital when they are sick, but the emergency emergency services do not manage to guarantee all admissions because they are still placed there are none: the beds are not free. The reasoning is another: before, swabs were made only to inpatients, for some days they have been done to inpatients and symptomatic health workers, who are almost all positive even if with few symptoms . This has created a positive data not hospitalized on the territory that did not exist before, false numbers because they refer only to health workers and not to the entire population. We wonder if those who manage numbers are just incompetent, if they live in a parallel universe or if they are marching on us ».Surely FB average users.
+Imperial College :)
(
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/imperial-college-italia-virus_it_5e82ecb2c5b62dd9f5d50594?7li&utm_hp_ref=it-homepage)
6 MILLIONS infected (in Italy) estimated by the London Imperial College (pseudoscience! stupid FB average users!)
And of course the deaths number are much higher (20.000?)
Renault on 31/3/2020 at 14:31
Quote Posted by SubJeff
USA now has double the cases as China, and about as many deaths.
I stopped believing any data coming out of China weeks ago. Any statistical model should just exclude them.
SubJeff on 31/3/2020 at 14:52
Yeah, I get that. It's either quite close to the truth and they're just bored of updating everyone or it's way, way lower than the reality (infections and deaths) and they are trying to "save face" by not admitting it.
If the latter is true...
lowenz on 31/3/2020 at 17:03
+328 deaths in Lombardy
LESS ICU than yesterday in Lombardy (1330->1324)
Hospitalized stable (+68 over 12.000)
@Home almost stable
zombe on 31/3/2020 at 18:05
Quote Posted by Brethren
I stopped believing any data coming out of China weeks ago. Any statistical model should just exclude them.
China data is fairly decent (with not much room for data fudging). Their situation, however was too chaotic for the data to be particularly useful. Especially considering cultural differences and governments grip on things (not in the sense of fudging with data, but more on how they dealt with containment - both people and government). It just won't apply to crisis elsewhere (except S.Korea that has some similarities in key aspects - and there has been mention of differences in virus strand which i have mostly forgotten [only one of the strands distinguished in China got any spread in Korea if memory serves]).
US data is unusable for different reasons. To give an example: New York, as stated in various places,
mostly does no testing outside hospitalization. Not surprisingly - their cumulative (*) positives/tests is over 0.35. That is worse than Italy in its worst day. Where the NY's last day (30th) has a positive rate of 0.49 (!!). High positive rate is not only a NY thing - New Jersey is pretty high too. And Arizona is a lot worse than anything else. Etc. Consequently - the yet to be observed death rate is going to suck accordingly (if you need hospitalization then your case won't be one of the numerous mild ones - duh).
Germany, on the other hand, appears to be looking down from its peak (active case count is pretty much on a standstill too). Their testing stat collection is a mess, but the latest round-call placed it at ~0.07 positives per test - cumulatively (*).
*) Ie. all the tests that have ever been performed in this crisis.
Renzatic on 31/3/2020 at 18:30
If there's one excuse that blows my mind everytime I see it, it's the whole "Don't panic sheeple! This isn't spreading! The only reason why we're seeing more cases is because we're testing more!"
...what are you, fucking stupid or something? That's literally them saying that the only reason we know it's as bad as it is is because we're now finding out just how bad it is, so it's really not as bad as it looks.
Harvester on 31/3/2020 at 18:45
We just passed the 1000 deaths mark since yesterday. Apparently we’re in third place when it comes to number of deaths relative to the population count, third only to Italy and Spain. [emoji20] we’re in danger of running short on IC beds, qualified medical staff and respiratory equipment. Normal medical procedures are being postponed, like chemotherapy and such, pretty bad for those people involved...
I’m getting my groceries delivered to my house for the third week in a row now, I had to check often before a delivery slot became free, supermarkets are struggling to meet demand on home deliveries. There are enough products but not enough trucks and personnel. Tomorrow I will have to go out to the pharmacist for my meds, but other than that I batten down the hatches and hunker down in my home. At my company it’s been decided we’re working from home until at least the end of april. Good call I think. Productivity for me is about on par with working at the office.
Turns out I’m very much a loner who can handle this relatively fine. Many others here have it much worse.
SubJeff on 31/3/2020 at 19:18
Quote Posted by Harvester
At my company it's been decided we're working from home until at least the end of april. Good call I think. Productivity for me is about on par with working at the office.
Mine decided this a couple of weeks ago already, and as I work 2 to 3 days a week from home anyway I was already set up for this. The being stuck without interaction is an interesting one if you're not living with anyone I guess, but you can always come and vent on TTLG!
heywood on 31/3/2020 at 20:08
Quote Posted by zombe
China data is fairly decent (with not much room for data fudging). Their situation, however was too chaotic for the data to be particularly useful. Especially considering cultural differences and governments grip on things (not in the sense of fudging with data, but more on how they dealt with containment - both people and government). It just won't apply to crisis elsewhere (except S.Korea that has some similarities in key aspects - and there has been mention of differences in virus strand which i have mostly forgotten [only one of the strands distinguished in China got any spread in Korea if memory serves]).
US data is unusable for different reasons. To give an example: New York, as stated in various places, does no testing outside hospitalization. Not surprisingly - their cumulative (*) positives/tests is over 0.35. That is worse than Italy in its worst day. Where the NY's last day (30th) has a positive rate of 0.49 (!!). High positive rate is not only a NY thing - New Jersey is pretty high too. And Arizona is a lot worse than anything else. Etc. Consequently - the yet to be observed death rate is going to suck accordingly (if you need hospitalization then your case won't be one of the numerous mild ones - duh).
Germany, on the other hand, appears to be looking down from its peak (active case count is pretty much on a standstill too). Their testing stat collection is a mess, but the latest round-call placed it at ~0.07 positives per test - cumulatively (*).
*) Ie. all the tests that have ever been performed in this crisis.
What information could you glean from the rate of positives/tests? That's going to vary everywhere, even from one primary care physician to the next, because we don't all follow the same protocol in deciding who gets tested. For example, my doctor's office is asking us to call them first if we have any symptoms, and if we don't require medical attention, assume a positive and self-quarantine at home. The idea is to avoid risking others JUST to get a test, in cases where the result wouldn't change the recommended course of action. Depending on your risk factors, they may check in with you daily or let you ride it out unless your symptoms get worse. But we also have people skipping or ignoring their PCPs and showing up at hospital emergency rooms with mild early symptoms, demanding to be tested. Likewise, people are showing up at drive-through testing sites with no symptoms and no connections to confirmed cases,
I guess hoping to get a little peace of mind, though testing negative one day doesn't mean you won't get it the next, so I don't know what testing the non-sick accomplishes for anyone.
Quote Posted by Renzatic
If there's one excuse that blows my mind everytime I see it, it's the whole "Don't panic sheeple! This isn't spreading! The only reason why we're seeing more cases is because we're testing more!"
...what are you, fucking stupid or something? That's literally them saying that the only reason we know it's as bad as it is is because we're now finding out just how bad it is, so it's really not as bad as it looks.
Yeah, that's a bizarre one. Maybe what they would like to believe is that this virus is widespread already, and that most people who've been exposed just aren't having any significant symptoms. That would go along with their argument that the death rates among reported cases are massively exaggerated compared to a true death rate that's probably no worse than seasonal flu. That hypothesis was harder to reject a few weeks ago, but I'm surprised anybody would still cling to that hope now.
Renzatic on 31/3/2020 at 20:40
Quote Posted by heywood
That hypothesis was harder to reject a few weeks ago, but I'm surprised anybody would still cling to that hope now.
There are still plenty of people holding on to the notion that this is no worse than the flu, and it's being played up by media for political reasons. Though now that we're arresting and fining pastors for holding services with dozens and hundreds of people, a lot of the hardline don't-really-understand-the-Constitutionalists are now getting in on the action, saying this is being played up so The Government can take away our freedoms.
See, the problem with America these days is that very few people seem to understand the fine line that lies between standing up for your rights and freedoms, and being a bunch of paranoid selfish cunts anymore.
