Gryzemuis on 28/3/2020 at 18:38
Quote Posted by lowenz
So "official" death rate here is 15%.......and not official (adding the not tested deads)? 20%
Percent of what ?
15% of infected ? 15% of tested infected ? 15% of hospitalized ? 15% of people in ICU ?
Without knowning what all these numbers (from all around the world) mean, they are kinda pointless to me. Except for indicating this is a serious problem. But we already knew that.
I assume you mean: deathrate in Lombardia is 15% of tested infected ?
We still don't know how many infected there really are. And how many recovered. How many are immune (is that possible ?).
So the interesting numbers are:
unknown infected without symptoms
unknown infected with symptoms
confirmed infected (by test)
infected and ill at home
hospitalized
in ICU
dead
It would be nice to also have these statistics in 3 forms: current, recovered, total.
Well, for the "unknown infected", of course we can't have statistics now. Maybe in a few months or years, we'll know how widespread the infection itself was. Even people dying these weeks might not be officially counted as "death because of covid-19". I don't think autopsy/testing is done on all deceased.
Maybe once the percentage of total infected (including untested infected) approached 80-90% of the population, then we'll know more. When almost everyone has been infected, numbers will stabelize. And assuming every has been infected, and all infected who would get ill are already ill, then we can finally see the real percentages. That might take 6-18 months.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 19:10
Of course infected ones, you can do the maths man: the numbers are there.
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
How many are immune (is that possible ?).
There's no "immunity". The virus can infect virtually everyone and replicates in the tissues it has affinity for, simple as that. Like every virus.
For this Coronavirus the preferred targets are the lung tissues and the kidney tissues.
Starting from the mouth and the throat mucosa (it can replicate there too, so the contagion by "asymptomatic" individuals )
In certain people there's something (see my words about ACE2) that pulls immediately the virus to the lungs and those people are the ones developing the (classic) viral
AND the interstitial pneumonia.
The interstitial pneumonia is a reactive pneumonia caused by the inflammation process preceding the real "battle" against the virus.
On genetic (?) base
some people are literally killed by the interstitial pneumonia flooding the lungs with blood and water, to the point there's no space for air-blood exchange of O2 and CO2.
So you die of hypoxia (several dynamics of death)
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Well, for the "unknown infected", of course we can't have statistics now. Maybe in a few months or years, we'll know how widespread the infection itself was. Even people dying these weeks might not be officially counted as "death because of covid-19". I don't think autopsy/testing is done on all deceased.
That's our problem here now.
All numbers are FUBAR.
Some towns claim that covid-19 related (direct or indirect cause of death) deaths occuring these days are THREE (!) times higher than the registered ones in relationship with a positive result of the test.
Sometimes because the person dies at home with the fever and shortness of breath and no test is done after on the body (
let alone the autopsy!). We have literally NO test kits outside the hospitals.
Same thing in several hospitalization structures for the elderly: we have plenty of them, so imagine all those silent deaths away from the hospitals!
And we don't even have the coffins now.....kind of freakish.
One "good thing": since the quarantine started there are ~0 deaths from car accidents.
Addendum: (
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic?rss=1)
(
https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/14804-nonspecific-interstitial-pneumonia-nsip)
What causes nonspecific interstitial pneumonia?
No one is really sure what causes NSIP. Many researchers believe that it is an autoimmune disease, because of the similarities between NSIP and certain connective tissue diseases, such as systemic sclerosis. Some researchers suggest that genes are involved, with heredity playing a role in its development. Inhaling chemicals or dust, use of certain chemotherapy drugs, or radiation treatment could result in the lung damage associated with NSIP.And now we freely got (in Italy) ~50.000 cases in one month proving that the interstitial pneumonia is of course autoimmune when in presense of SARS(cov)2 infection acting as a trigger.
You know, SCIENCE. Here we are.
Al_B on 28/3/2020 at 20:06
Please don't post 5 times in a row - if you need to add more information then edit your last post. Posts merged.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 20:09
Thanks ;)
Renzatic on 28/3/2020 at 20:10
I've since read more about this, and I feel the need to correct my initial opinion that the fault lies more with New Orleans' mayor than the government.
Apparently, Nawlin's government was working with a federal terrorist and threat assessment task force while setting things up for Mardi Gras. When the mayor asked if she should consider postponing things due to concerns over coronavirus, they told her it was nothing to be worried about, and to go ahead with the parade.
If this is true, then it does make Trump responsible. He's the head of the government. He sets policy. He wanted to ignore the threat until it could be ignored no longer, and here we are.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 20:42
California: (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkhnAF7E5xw&feature=emb_logo)
Friday perfect condition -> Wednesday death ?
It's impossible without a
severe immunodepression.
My 81 yo uncle is still alive after 2 weeks and he lived all his life drinking (LOL), have you present the Zane character from Borderlands 3? That kind of man, perfectly filling that role (assassination apart :p )
Well, the first time he risked death was the same day of his baptism, 6 febraury 1939 falling in the snow @6AM some hours after the birth :D
Vae on 28/3/2020 at 20:48
We're now starting to see riots in China...
[video=youtube;Rt-KtKkUVus]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt-KtKkUVus&feature=emb_title[/video]
(
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/27/Fighting-erupts-at-Chinese-bridge-between-Hubei-Jiangxi-provinces/4461585330760/) Fighting erupts at Chinese bridge between Hubei, Jiangxi provinces
Quote:
March 27 (UPI) -- Police in China clashed with each other and with people trying to cross a bridge between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces, according to footage uploaded to Chinese social media on Friday.
Video taken at the bridge Friday afternoon at the Yangtze River shows the escalation of violence as people try to leave Hubei, while police on the other side in Jiangxi try to block their passage, Canada's Globe and Mail reported.
The skirmish was filmed two days after Chinese authorities lifted travel restrictions against Hubei residents. China has resumed operations of trains and buses out of the coronavirus-hit province. On Friday, the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, was reclassified as a "medium risk" zone after being assigned a "high risk" rating since January.
Renzatic on 28/3/2020 at 20:58
Can't say they don't deserve it.
heywood on 28/3/2020 at 21:38
I expect we'll be seeing this here too. In China, the people don't trust the federal government, for good reasons of course. So when the government re-classified Wuhan as medium-risk, the neighboring province of Jiangxi didn't buy it and mayhem ensued.
We have a similar situation here in New England, with New York City just a few hours drive away. The state of Rhode Island now has the National Guard going door-to-door tracking down refugees from New York.
In the meantime, the Shiite Houthis in Yemen are taking advantage of the distractions to fire missiles into Saudi Arabia. I expect that to be an increasing trend all over the globe. This virus is going to be an insurgent's dream.
