zombe on 28/3/2020 at 17:23
My tracking update.
old:
(
https://postimg.cc/f34TNRqH)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/f34TNRqH/cov19.pngnew:
(
https://postimg.cc/V0wV05Fj)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/V0wV05Fj/cov19b.pngblue = new cases
red = growth rate based on last days
green = tests performed
yellow = deaths
est = Proper testing has only started (3.5 days) - catching up. Added the testing stats for every given day to the graph. Restrictions have been in place for quite some time though - so, bound to have smothered the spread a bit. Will see in a week.
ita = Growth rate 1. There likely are not enough test being done. Should not affect the red line though. Deaths, with a lag, seem to confirm too - probable apex looming.
Unable to find testing data.ger = Minor dip, but still ~1.1 rate. No idea what restrictions are enforced and since when. It is said that they test a lot - and count of deaths supports that.
Unable to find testing data.kor = Still stable and even still falling. Testing data is available: wow, capped (presumably, but why else is there such a visible cap) their testing capacity early and keep using it all. Consistently 100 tests per one positive found.
usa = Everything is a mess. Blue line is too volatile to be trusted without having a good green stat - and green is pure garbage on CDC page (!? ... how do you respond to this kind of crisis without centralized data ... PUBLIC data ... where is the centralized public data?). Yellow is the only reliable line.
Unable to find USABLE testing data.spa = No change or slightly worse than before - when it was already worrying enough. Spread rate higher than what the world has is not good. Based on proximity of blue and yellow (keeping lag/spread rate in mind) - they are not doing enough tests. Very worrying situation and does not seem to improve.
Unable to find testing data.fra = No change. No curve for yellow either :/.
Unable to find testing data.Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
I don't know if you find these interesting, but Dutch numbers can be found here
No testing data though.
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
I still look at these number every day. But I stopped doing my simple math and drawing my own conclusions.
The reason is that the meaning of these numbers sometimes change.
Yes, that is a common problem. However, deaths are fairly reliable (non-hospitalized deaths that might go untested are unlikely to matter) and serve as proxy for the rest to squeeze some comparative conclusions out of. Similarly, but to a much more timely and usable degree, would the testing stats help. Testing essentially tells how easy it is to find positives in any of the changing circumstances. Ex: Easy = possibly only tested when hospitalization is needed.
Also, the meaning of the numbers likely changes fairly gradually - which is good enough for trends etc.
I keep doing it because i cannot find the data anywhere else in the form i find most useful.
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Germany has offered surrounding countries that they could take in some ICU patients. Very kind.
Yes. I remember reading them already doing that to some other border region i cannot name atm (France-something?).
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 17:55
Aye Aye ;)
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 18:00
So "official" death rate here is 15%.......and not official (adding the not tested deads)? 20%
Think of same thing in New York, Connecticut (why this name sounds so strange to me since ever.... connect&cut), North Carolina, etc etc etc
Renzatic on 28/3/2020 at 18:02
It's pronounced cuh-neh-tuh-cut.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 18:14
English pronunciation is so.....alQQQQQemic.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 18:36
OK, data of the
province of Bergamo.
200 deaths yesterday (peak)
140-150 deaths today
1750 since the beginning + 250/500 not tested
So much for the Atalanta match.....what a price.
My town (Pontida - (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontida) ), 3300 inhabitants (typical town of elders)
~15 deaths since the beginning
16 positive ones to yesterday and so ~60 (3-4 family members) people in strict quarantine
