Starker on 28/3/2020 at 06:26
You have always been at war with Eastasia.
Since I have no reference point, how far does a thousand bucks stretch anyway? Can it pay the rent for a couple of months?
Renzatic on 28/3/2020 at 06:42
Depends on where you live. On average, I'd say it's about a month's rent for a really cheap apartment.
Down here, it's about 4-5 weeks worth of groceries too.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 10:57
IN LOMBARDY (Christ,
LOMBARDY, NOT VENETO) there's no test outside the hospitals.
I repeat, in LOMBARDY there's not test outside the hospitals.
And in BERGAMO (a province of Lombardy)
we don't even have more coffins! 200 deaths day by day!
You're simply an arrongant idiot, if you can't find the difference between 2 different regions!
The tests in VENETO are for political reasons (Zaia and his re-election),
they have NO deaths high count!
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 11:18
Now you can see the "expert" level.
They totally don't know what they're talking about. Simple textbook models / work habit and no reality grip.
SubJeff on 28/3/2020 at 12:01
Quote Posted by lowenz
IN LOMBARDY (Christ,
LOMBARDY, NOT VENETO) there's no test outside the hospitals.
I repeat, in LOMBARDY there's not test outside the hospitals.
No, we were talking about ITALY, because you said (I've added the emphasis).
Quote Posted by lowenz
The problem here
(in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.
There being no testing outside the hospitals in Lombardy may be true, I don't know. But we were talking about the overall deaths in Italy as it relates to under 30s and 20s and the potential unknown rate of infections in an untested population.
Anyway, I'm done. Say what you like about this whole thing all you like, I'm not going to engage/challenge anything you post I think is incorrect anymore.
zombe on 28/3/2020 at 12:34
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Now this is depressing. Based upon known data gathered from other currently proceeding outbreaks, and going by current upward trends, this is the projected resource and death curve here in the United States. You can break everything down by state, but if this is correct, we should hit the peak of this around the middle of April, and be out the other side by the beginning of July.
(
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)
Try not to look at the death peak.
Looks overly optimistic. Checked NY predictions there - and they predict peak resource usage around 7th April. The first meaningful restrictions started at March 20. That is barely enough time to start slowing down the spread (incubation alone is 2-14 days) - let alone the peak in resource needs. Especially as hospital resource needs lag much more and ventilator needs lag and overlap even more (much more!). They predict the reverse of lag (ie. they are mostly needed before the peak of patients arrive and before they start needing ventilators) - which sounds completely batshit to me. Peak ventilator need is predicted a bit over 4000*2=8000 (*2 for a safety margin) vs what NY currently predicts - 40000. Maybe i missed something (quite possible ... in my comfy chair at the other side of the planet) but one of thous i find eminently more believable.
heywood on 28/3/2020 at 12:45
Quote Posted by catbarf
My now-wife spent a couple of years just outside Dover before moving in with me, so I've been to NH a fair bit. My surprise comes from how, thus far in the crisis, the 'it's my property, don't tell me what I can't do with it' types have been screaming bloody murder at business shutdowns and quarantines, and the states that are beholden to those individuals (most of the South, at the moment) have done basically nothing. I'd have expected that to be true for NH as well.
I actually really miss New Hampshire. It was a heck of a difference from yuppie DC suburbia. I'd have rather moved in with her than vice versa, but there weren't any jobs up there in my line of work. I guess I can just order Moxie off Amazon and plan my retirement.
Dover and the sea coast area is the more liberal part of the state. As you go into the more sparsely populated regions, you'll find more people with a fiercely independent or libertarian streak, the kind that gave the state it's reputation.
You could do like I did and find a place in the Southern part of the state that's close to a metro Boston commuter corridor, but still has a NH character. That opens up the possibility of working in Boston's northern suburbs where there's jobs of all sorts. My wife even worked in Cambridge, MA for a few years, but the commute was pretty brutal.
Anyway, I like living where I live. There's plenty of work, cost of living is not outrageous, schools are OK, people are pretty sane. Most of all, there's seemingly endless ways to spend your weekends. I can't think of any other part of the country that offers a similar variety of things to do and recreational opportunities within reasonable driving distance for a day trip or overnight.
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Now this is depressing. Based upon known data gathered from other currently proceeding outbreaks, and going by current upward trends, this is the projected resource and death curve here in the United States. You can break everything down by state, but if this is correct, we should hit the peak of this around the middle of April, and be out the other side by the beginning of July.
(
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)
Try not to look at the death peak.
That looks optimistic.
Here's a local article I was reading yesterday. Projections from the UPenn CHIME model suggest up to 2500 hospital beds will be needed just for one medium-sized city (Nashua), while the healthdata.org link projects 1027 beds needed in total for the whole state.
(
https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/new-covid--cases-reported-models-show-up-to-percent/article_64e3bfd1-19b2-5eab-9ede-00ace90471f6.html)
Also, Gov Cuomo has been saying New York is expected to take 3 more weeks to peak out, and up to 140k beds will be needed. The healthdata.org projection shows New York peaking one week from now and needing 48k beds. I certainly hope the latter is closer to the truth.
Gryzemuis on 28/3/2020 at 13:14
Quote Posted by zombe
People, do you know where are the testing stats for your country (test completed for every day)? Specifically: Italy, Germany, Spain, France and USA (*).
I don't know if you find these interesting, but Dutch numbers can be found here: (
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cfc2084c995c40e7ae72254029bf6251)
Updated once a day, around 14:00-15:00.
The graph on the right is the most intesting:
"Totale gegevens door de tijd" -> "Total data over time"
"Totaal bevestigd aantal besmettingen" (yellow) -> "Total count of infections"
"Totaal aantal overledenen" (red) -> "Total amount of deceased"
"Totaal aantal opgenomen (geweest) in ziekenhuis" (blue) -> "Total amount of hospitalized patients, now and in the past"
"Totaal aantal opgenomen (geweest) op IC" (purple) -> "Total amount of patients in ICUs, now and in the past"
What is missing here is the current number of people in hospital and the current number of people in ICU.
The daily number of people in ICU is published each day, but not in this overview.
I still look at these number every day. But I stopped doing my simple math and drawing my own conclusions.
The reason is that the meaning of these numbers sometimes change.
E.g. we have a huge shortage of tests here, so many people are not tested. We all know that the number of infected in these stats is the number of positively tested people. But we have no idea how many people are really infected. We also have no clue how many people recovered. And no clue what percentage of infected show symptoms. Our ICUs are almost at capacity, and doctors are starting to become stricter about who can go into ICU. This has an impact on number of people in ICU. So as we go along, all the numbers are changing or will be changing their meaning.
Good news: we received a 100 ventilators from Philips USA (a Dutch medical company) today. That number should increase to a 1000 this week. This was uncertain because Trump had said this week that all the medical equipment produced in the US should go to US patients. Other good news: Germany has a lot more ICU beds than NL (I think I heard 7x more!). Germany has offered surrounding countries that they could take in some ICU patients. Very kind.
Anyway, my own conclusions were: if a country doesn't do anything (no lockdown, etc), all the numbers (infected, ill, hospitalized, in ICU, deaths) will double every 3 days. When a country does do some form of lockdown, all the numbers will keep doubling, only at a slower rate. Maybe once every 5 days, or once every 7 days. As I said, I'm not trying to compute these numbers myself anymore (for NL) because the numbers keep changing their exact meaning.
lowenz on 28/3/2020 at 13:49
Quote Posted by SubJeff
No, we were talking about ITALY, because you said (I've added the emphasis).
There being no testing outside the hospitals in Lombardy may be true, I don't know. But we were talking about the overall deaths in Italy as it relates to under 30s and 20s and the potential unknown rate of infections in an untested population.
Anyway, I'm done. Say what you like about this whole thing all you like, I'm not going to engage/challenge anything you post I think is incorrect anymore.
The "test outside the hospitals" is referred to LOMBARDY.You've pinpointed a case that is NOT in Lombardy, but in another region. And it's a POLITICAL move of its governor, Zaia, 'cause in Veneto there's NO high count of deaths for now.
It was only a fluke related to the start of the phenomenon (Vo' Euganeo was the second town in Italy with deaths when the epidemy has started, but it's literally
an anomaly in Veneto region)
Here in Lombardy (not in Italy) we are on a total different level and very MAD at Zaia because
he did waste so many test kits for POLITICAL reasons.
(
http://news.mit.edu/2020/peptide-drug-block-covid-19-cells-0327)
Studies of SARS-CoV-2 have also shown that a specific region of the spike protein, known as the receptor binding domain, binds to a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This receptor is found on the surface of many human cells, including those in the lungs. The ACE2 receptor is also the entry point used by the coronavirus that caused the 2002-03 SARS outbreak.And males and females have an important difference about ACE2 receptors in the lungs.
So of course the ACE-inhibitors are *candidates* as virus enablers (facilitators), seeing the gender distribution in population (
you must use it as a weight in the distribution) AND in deaths!
The infection has NO preferences, ma but the *expression* of the infection as a killer pneumonia really happens in males 4->8 times more!4->8 times more in 9100 deaths, it can't be a coincidence! And so it's only natural to think about ACE2 and virus sinergy with ACE-inhibitors taken by elders!