Renzatic on 26/3/2020 at 21:40
Hopes and prayers!
lowenz on 26/3/2020 at 21:47
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Hopes and prayers!
More prayers less spreaders......
heywood on 26/3/2020 at 21:56
We had a bad day :sweat:
And so did a lot of countries unfortunately.
I still think India could be the worst case scenario. Fortunately, they seem to be imposing a very tight shutdown relatively early.
And at some point, this is going to hit the various refugee camps around the world, and that's going to be a disaster.
EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time. However, I expect we will follow the model of our Southern neighbor, Massachusetts, and define "essential businesses" so broadly that half the state is still open for business.
demagogue on 26/3/2020 at 22:56
Somehow Massachusettes being described as Southern and kook conservative, in this context at least, is a fitting sign of how surreal our world is now.
You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.
SubJeff on 26/3/2020 at 23:32
Quote Posted by lowenz
Isn't it strange for an ubercontagious disease?
No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.
Please just stop. Almost all of your posts on the scientific aspects of this have been incorrect. I appreciate that you're interested in it, and the papers you link to are (mostly) interesting. But you're jumping to conclusions and making declarations that just aren't true.
Quote Posted by Renzatic
I hate to sound like an alarmist here, but since this spread through the country so quickly relative to everywhere else, we're probably gonna get smacked with this 10x as hard as people start dying seemingly all at once
I hope I'm being overly dramatic here, but this doesn't look good.
I've been saying this for the past 2 weeks - the USA is where the real disaster will happen. You TTLGer's need to stay the hell indoors.
It's because of a number of factors, but it really boils down to the entire set-up, the entire culture. And it's compounded by Trump being in power. If it were Obama I really think it's be different. Still dreadful, but just not AS dreadful. The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.
Though Trump's travel restrictions were ahead of the curve and that stimulus package is impressive.
It's too late, sadly. The death toll in the USA will be the worst on the planet, maybe by several factors. That's my unfortunate prediction.
Renzatic on 26/3/2020 at 23:36
I can tell you how the south we'll react. We have people in Tennessee begging for a full lockdown, but the governor is sticking strong to the "just be careful" line, and handing off the real decision making to the city governments. The governor of Louisiana has stated he will not put the state into lockdown.
Meanwhile, people are STILL going on as if it's life as usual. The roads are a little less busy, but that's about it.
Renzatic on 26/3/2020 at 23:39
Quote Posted by SubJeff
The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.
We can. We've done it before. We're not going to now though, because everything's political.
catbarf on 26/3/2020 at 23:45
Quote Posted by heywood
EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time.
Color me surprised- don't you guys still have 'Live Free Or Die' on your license plates as standard-issue? Good to see them taking it seriously, New York is looking more and more like The Division with each passing day.
Quote Posted by demagogue
You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.
Here in Virginia- the northern, liberal enclave of Virginia- I'm watching my local neighbors on Nextdoor argue that it's all a hoax, proudly boasting that they went to stores and mingled with hundreds of other people. Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon. Then there are others saying oh well, big deal, we'll probably mostly catch it, and ignoring the pretty simple math on what that translates to.
It's nice to see some members of the community telling them to shut the fuck up, but yeah, I'm worried. Both my wife and I have government contracting jobs and we're both able to work from home, and all our fresh food is delivered from a local farm, so we don't have any real need to leave the house (at least, as long as the farm is delivering). But I'm worried that we're not just going to see a lot of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals; temporary societal breakdown isn't looking out of the question.
I'm getting sick of these rugged survivalists touting how ready they are for the apocalypse. Like it's something they actually want.
I wish there was more we could do.
Renzatic on 27/3/2020 at 00:02
Quote Posted by catbarf
Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon.
I'm beginning to think that maybe we should put some containers of fish tank cleaner on the side of the road somewhere, and let nature take its course.
lowenz on 27/3/2020 at 00:38
Quote Posted by SubJeff
No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.
To be precise R0
is related to lethality: No contagion -> no death
The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.
So don't tell me "it's not related" when you see
a perfect ZERO where the contagion spreads the most with subclinical symptoms and so underestimated.
