demagogue on 13/12/2018 at 12:24
Trump will hold on to power to the bitter end. I wouldn't say "for dear life" or "clinging" because I think it's probable he has a narcissist personality disorder and it's literally cognitively impossible for him to confront the concept that he might have done something wrong or is anything less than the best president in US history. So resignation is out of the question. It's not even in the same galaxy as the question. Why would he even imagine resigning if he's done nothing wrong & is the greatest president ever? He'll go down saying he's the victim of a vast conspiracy against him all the way out the door; because jealous people out there want to bring down the best. So he wouldn't even say he's "clinging" to power. In his mind, he was elected by the biggest majority in US history and his approval ratings are still through the roof. People like that don't cling. They gloat.
I personally like the image of the police waiting outside the gates of the White House arresting him the very day he leaves office, like out of a scene from 24. Now that Cohen is in jail for a crime Trump solicited, it's basically already a legal inevitability that Trump committed a felony that comes with jail time (soliciting a felony), that if I read it correctly, is a felony they'll bring under New York state law so even the question of whether Trump could pardon himself doesn't even come into play.
Edit: In crim law we learn solicitation or abetting a crime is a degree less than the underlying crime, but on this type of case it's apparently a little different...
(
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/richard-painter-trump-way-out_us_5c11ca15e4b0449012f67e3c?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003&fbclid=IwAR16xXGKPd7rqV2BEhxiT8MI27Wts20scJ82DsgWY5Ti_e_tNvkTpclInBQ)
Quote:
What happens when a lawyer says his client ordered him to commit a crime and he did it, and the lawyer can prove what he claims? Bush ethics counsel Richard Painter reviews the precedents. The rule is that the lawyer and his client both go to jail, and the client as principal who benefitted from the crime, usually gets a sentence of imprisonment which is 1.5 to 1.8 times the sentence given to the lawyer; though the lawyer usually gets disbarred. That means that Donald J Trump is looking at 5-6 years on these two counts alone.
Starker on 14/12/2018 at 01:41
Looks like he might be getting a second term after all, and it could be far longer than 4 years.
demagogue on 14/12/2018 at 01:48
Robert-Redford-nod.gif
Quote of the day right there.
Gryzemuis on 14/12/2018 at 01:56
I think you are all a bit over-enthousiastic. This is the US. If you have friends, if you have money, or if you have both, you won't go to jail. It's that simple. This is how the US justice system works. Trump can shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue, and he won't go to jail. He wasn't lying.
There are 2 things that can happen:
1) Trump gets sick of playing President. He himself decides to not run for a 2nd term. He retires. He lives long and happily ever after.
2) Trump decides to go for a 2nd term. He wins the next election. (There is no doubt he will). He will be president for another 4 years.
Anything else is wishful thinking.
Let's hope he decides to quit in 2020.
Nicker on 14/12/2018 at 02:39
On the contrary, it seems the only thing preventing him from arrest now or in the very near future, is being president. The newly installed AG for New York is gunning for him and his kids on at least three fronts. Mueller is ranging in on Trump himself. Old friends are lining up to take turns throwing Donny under the bus.
And the amount of strong arming and gerrymandering the GOP would need, to get Trump elected, if they even allow his nomination, is astronomical.
He's toast.
Quote Posted by Starker
Looks like he might be getting a second term after all, and it could be far longer than 4 years.
He did toy openly with the idea of a life term...
demagogue on 14/12/2018 at 04:32
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
I think you are all a bit over-enthousiastic. This is the US. If you have friends, if you have money, or if you have both, you won't go to jail. It's that simple.
Yeah... There's still this thing called res judicata. It means once a court has decided something and it's the final decision (not subject to any further appeals), then it's settled law. That the underlying act is a crime which Cohen is going to serve time for is already a settled decision now. (Edit: Ok, technically it's not res judicata, it's collateral estoppel, since it's not the final verdict itself being repeated, only one issue in the first trial that's been decided for the 2nd. But it's the same idea.) All a new trial has to show is that Trump solicited it, and Cohen has an audio recording of the solicitation.
I mean, people like OJ can throw vast sums of money and get an acquittal for hopeless-looking cases to begin with; that's true. But in this case, there's not much wiggle room left for Trump to argue his way out of this. He can't argue the act wasn't a crime anymore. He'd have to argue his statements weren't really solicitation and... That's kind of a hard sell.
There's also the possibility of directly bribing a judge or jury member that happens sometimes, of course, but with the scrutiny on this case I wouldn't bet on that, either.
Starker on 14/12/2018 at 04:41
Also, looks like this is just the tip of the iceberg of the potential legal trouble. It has nothing to do with Lord Dampnut's shady business or his foundation or self-dealing or emoluments or obstruction of justice. It's "merely" an attempt to hide a campaign finance violation.
"Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money."
-- the president of the United States