demagogue on 31/5/2024 at 00:10

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A jury convicted him today, making him a convicted felon.
In a few weeks he gets sentenced, making him a sentenced felon.

There are the legal terms of art and then there's the less formal way journalists and lay people talk about things, and they can differ sometimes. Like when the police detain people before arraignment, that's not really an arrest yet until you have an arraignment, like a grand jury deciding on the arrest and an arrest warrant being issued. But often newspapers will still say the guy got arrested when he's first detained.

But I think even informally most people understand the jury verdict as the conviction.

Edit: If you want to think about it this way, there are rules in some states about convicted felons, like restrictions on being able to get a gun license or vote, etc., and those rules trigger on the jury verdict/conviction. So they've already triggered for Trump now. He's not going to be able to vote for himself in his own district in Florida because convicted felons can't vote there, lol.

SD on 31/5/2024 at 00:27

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I bet that when conservatives drew up all those laws barring felons from voting in order to disenfranchise black people, they didn't see something like this coming.

demagogue on 31/5/2024 at 04:23

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1. Dark Brandon rigged Trump's conviction to ensure his own election.
2. Trump's conviction ensures Trump's election.

You gotta pick one. You can't have both.

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Edit: By the numbers, I think Trump's delta-support is gonna be [conservatives that already supported Trump but weren't going to vote now voting] - [independents that supported Trump before now flipping their vote or staying home]. I think both are already slim & the combination even slimmer, and that will lean very sightly negative (in favor of Biden)... Flipped votes are just more likely vote-count-changing than a-person-that-doesn't-normally-vote voting in this case (for a couple of reasons), I think. (E.g., most all the heat being generated online galvanizing behind Trump is coming from people that were already going to vote for him anyway. You don't hear independents making noise, but their flipped votes are the ones that will especially count.)

But I think the margin will be so slim it's hard to say anyway. That said, the election may come down to a very slim margin. So I won't say it won't have an impact. I guess time will tell. My undergrad thesis was bean counting the motivation for votes across demographics in the 1992 election, so I have an idea what will go into the post mortem analysis.

Edit2
The actual poll numbers for reference.



My point is that "more likely" means people already favoring Trump are more galvanized, but some flippers that will use it as a posterchild moment they want to respond to, but "less likely" has relatively more actual vote flippers, but some that weren't and still won't vote anyway. But I don't know if that's true. You'd have to survey those data points.

demagogue on 31/5/2024 at 05:08

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Also by "likely true" that it's rigged, you mean all 12 jurors that the defense signed off on were bought off to give a corrupt unanimous vote for conviction, and all of the prosecution witnesses bought off, and all of the documentary evidence was forged, and the grand jury bought off to issue a meritless arrest warrant, that a judge was bought off to sign without sufficient evidence, and the prosecutor brought a case with no evidence with that plan from the beginning--we're talking about a conspiracy of at least 30~40 people already, all being genius enough to pull all of that off without any of them spilling the beans but too oblivious to imagine that it might help Trump more than help Biden? For the record, that's the story, right?

Edit: I should say, for the record, that my day job is watching trials in countries like Cambodia, Myanmar, and China, where that level of corruption actually does happen on a regular basis. But in those cases, it'll be a closed trial and you won't be able to get a transcript or any documentation to know what actually happened, because that's how you get that much corruption to pass through every stage. It's harder to see how they could do it in an open trial that has journalists in the room every day, unless one thinks all the journalists are in on it too.

Vae on 31/5/2024 at 07:40

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Even though the trial is legally questionable (and of course an appeal will be made), it is the political reality that will hold the most sway over the outcome. Election interference and rigging, whether actual or perceived, is being embraced by Trump supporters and attracting new Trump support, due to the apparent injustice.

The backfire effect is certainly real and growing...and unless something more extreme is done by his political enemies, he will be the next U.S. President.