demagogue on 26/1/2024 at 19:52

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As I recall the two data points against Clinton was Epstein's statement that he likes his girls young (in the recent data dump) and a massage he got from a teenage girl. There's a little smoke worth looking into, but my observation is that girls have always come forward for the persons of high stature, and they haven't for Clinton in this case. (Although there are other cases like Juanita Broaddrick, Leslie Millwee, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, Monika Lewinsky of course... The guy has lots of smoke for adult women, just not underage.)

I think the most significant data point against Trump is that the two alleged victims, Katie Johnson (13) and "Maria" (Marisela P., Jane Doe XIII, 12), had a witness in the room (Tiffany Doe, i.e., Tiffany G.) that (1) backed up everything Katie said in her deposition with her own sworn deposition (technically limited to only the facts Katie gave in her deposition, but I wouldn't bet against her backing everything Katie said in her informal interview, which discloses more horrifying details, although the explicit charge of "violent rape" is horrifying enough); (2) can pretty easily be verified as Epstein's actual handler for girls in the 1990s; a quick search of his flight manifestos and other information we have from the period verifies this, (3) was known to always be in the room for all of Epstein's assaults and is mentioned by other plaintiffs, (4) for that matter, was a consultant for the plaintiffs' lawyers in the Epstein estate cases, which involved something like over 130 plaintiff girls, so they know who she is, they got payouts, so evidently she was giving truthful and helpful information for those cases; it'd be odd for her to tell the truth for all of these other cases and lie only about Trump; (5) was an early witness against Prince Andrew and evidently got that right (the payout says it without saying it); and (6) she was acting against self-interest, since she noted the death threats she was already getting or fearing for coming forward (more precisely, Katie was using her phone number and reported getting constant death threats & the like), and lying only about Trump would undermine everything she was trying to do for the other girls in their cases.

As a lawyer, points like that are the things that tend to be persuasive to juries and the way evidence and arguments for witness credibility tend to work in criminal cases. It's not as direct as, e.g., videos of Trump's abuses which presumably exist, or existed, but I think it's a lot stronger data point than people gave it credit for at the time of the case.

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Edit: If I were doing a full treatment of this, there are plenty of counter-arguments a good defendant's lawyer could raise for every point I mentioned, attacking Tiffany's credibility as a witness, and a good plaintiff's lawyer would need to walk through them. I think that could be done well, although I wouldn't say it supports a slam dunk case like other criminal charges against Trump that really are slam dunks, like getting recorded on phone literally pressuring a Georgia state official for a change in its election result. But I bet it could pass the civil litigation standard of more likely than not at the least once her credibility as a witness is established. The main thing holding it back I think is that the actions to establish her credibility are the same ones that expose her to threats, well, that and the plaintiff herself, Katie, had her lawyer drop her case under threat.

demagogue on 26/1/2024 at 20:31

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The two data points around that that got to me were Katie's alleged recollections that she was instructed to wear a blonde wig and that Trump told her that his daughter was also 13 like she was (this in 1994); and for some reason, well I don't want to say it's creepier than his brag that he walked into the dressing room to see naked teenage girls in his beauty pageants, but it's at least as creepy to me that he would line the girls up and in full public view, since it was reported by other people, put his fingers into their mouths and swab them around to "check their teeth". I mean... :eww:

Nicker on 26/1/2024 at 21:23

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I hadn't heard about shoving his fingers in their mouths but his procurers at the pageants instructed the girls to fawn over tRump. Regardless of the relative creepiness of his many pervings, it is the pattern of behaviour that's so awful. I think it's safe to say that if he proudly indulges displays such predatory displays in public, his conduct behind closed doors (or on private islands) is orders of magnitude more vile.

Tocky on 27/1/2024 at 03:00

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The border thing is somewhat amusing as they were on the verge of a border deal until tRump interfered. Of course he does not want a deal. He wants failure at the cost of the country and Ukraine. It's particularly funny considering Abbott is the one who fell for the gay invasion gag when the national guard had exercises under Obama. It's all theater. Of course Vae won't read anything here as he is afraid it will defeat his simple minded following of such a creature.

When you look at the "invasion" you see it was higher numbers under Trump than Obama. It's been higher nearly every year. Of course facts don't matter to them.

DuatDweller on 27/1/2024 at 07:15

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Black woman president then?
:p