Jason Moyer on 8/8/2023 at 17:07
The best part of the conspiracy charges isn't the possibility that Trump is going to go to prison, because I don't think he's going to. It's the stuff people are going to have to testify to in order to keep him out of prison. Basically they're going to have to admit that all of the "stop the steal" stuff was bullshit, and I think that's going to have a bigger impact on people than just finding him guilty.
heywood on 8/8/2023 at 19:00
I don't think it will. The conservative media ignored the revelations from the Dominion vs. Fox News trial. Their viewers just don't want to hear it.
Check out this site. Granite Grok and local talk radio programs are the conservative water coolers of my local area. Make sure you read the comments too:
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https://granitegrok.com/blog/2023/08/of-course-trump-is-guilty) https://granitegrok.com/blog/2023/08/of-course-trump-is-guilty
Before 2010, these guys were outside of politics on the loony fringe. Now they feel like they have the wind at their backs, thanks to a worldwide reactionary movement, and they've come alive politically and are controlling the Republican party in several states. Donald Trump enabled and invited it, and I think these folks will continue to be loyal to him because they never felt like they had an ally in politics with a shot of winning before. Christian nationalists are staying loyal to him for the same reason. It doesn't matter how un-Christian Trump behaves, he's the one who gave them attention and legitimacy. Likewise for all the groups who dream of being storm troopers like Patriot Front and it's ilk, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, etc. I always worried that our Tony was going to get sucked into that vortex.
demagogue on 8/8/2023 at 19:51
The thing about criminal conspiracy is that the leaders of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys have already been convicted under the same charges Trump is facing. So we've already legally established that there was a criminal conspiracy. All you have to show for Trump is a substantial act in furtherance of it with criminal intent, and I think both of those things will be very easy to establish. Plenty of people have already walked through it.
I think the only way Trump is avoiding prison is if he wins the next election, some decision is made to toll the trial over his 2nd admin, GOP senators don't convict him in a new impeachment, and he's succeeded by a Republican president that pardons him on everything like Ford did for Nixon, including if the future Senate does ratify his impeachment or he resigns and again his successor pardons him like Ford did.
That would be a really unfortunate fate to befall the country, a perfect shit storm, but I guess worse things have happened in history and it shouldn't be ruled out. That's a case where I could see people really rioting in the streets, and I'd worry about the guy that pardoned Trump.
Well one difference this time around is that a lot of Republicans have already publicly turned anti-Trump. There were plenty of spineless saps that thought they were doing the right thing trying to act in good faith defending the first Trump admin (cf. why the cabinet never triggered the 25th Amendment process); but I don't see anyone in the admin or in Congress in a 2nd Trump admin being able to sit easy with doing that a 2nd time around. That said, I shouldn't prejudge just how spineless Republican Trumparatchiks can become.
Starker on 8/8/2023 at 20:11
If he wins, couldn't he just simply pardon himself?
heywood on 8/8/2023 at 20:35
Yes.
I don't think it matters what happens in court. Barring some bolt of lightning out of nowhere, he'll win the nomination, even if he's behind bars. There was a lot more Republican opposition to Trump during the 2016 primary season than there is now. He also pulled a lot of people into the Republican party who were sitting on the sidelines or previously aligned with the Democratic party. Even old communists seem to be rooting for him. He doesn't have enough supporters to win a national election, but he has enough to hold a majority in the Republican party.
demagogue on 9/8/2023 at 00:19
As for whether he could pardon himself, the honest answer is that it hasn't been resolved by a court, so it remains an open legal question. Even if you had authoritative actors say he can or, e.g., state courts holding it for state governors, that doesn't mean anything legally yet.
Putting on my law student cap, you'd start with the black letter of Article II. I think three key phrases are "shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States", "faithfully execute the office of President of the United States", and "shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors."
The first phrase on its face doesn't qualify the power, so that's a check in the "can" box. Edit: Some people are pointing out that the word "grant" implies that it has to apply to another person, since one normally "grants" a thing to a person, whereas if it were meant for oneself, the term you'd more likely use is "take" or "receive".
The second phrase may qualify it. There have been arguments that "faithfully execute" qualifies the other powers in that the President doesn't have power to take illegal or unconstitutional actions, although that doesn't necessarily specify the legal remedy. The contribution of the third phrase, in combination with the second, may support an argument that there may be a legal difference between "low crimes" and "high crimes" vis-a-vis "faithful execution" of the laws, so the president might be able to pardon himself for a low crime, but not a high crime like treason or sedition, because it woudn't be a faithful execution of the pardon power. So that'd be a check in the "can't" box.
But really the Supreme Court would be the one ultimately deciding. If recent history is any guide, they may well say he has the power; but I wouldn't bet too much on it. I mean a legit conviction for sedition or conspiracy to sedition isn't any old crime!
R Soul on 9/8/2023 at 17:26
If Trump is found guilty, he'd no doubt say it's invalid, or a stich-up etc. For a self-pardon to apply, would he have have to acknowlege that he was actually guilty, i.e. that he did do the things he was charged with? Would his broken diabolical narcissit ego allow that?
heywood on 9/8/2023 at 19:58
First we have to get to trial. He's not just disobeying gag orders, he's flaunting it. I think he will try to drag the prosecutors and judges and everyone else in the system down into the mud with him, spew FUD to spoil the jury pool, intimidate witnesses, and whatever else works to drag it out, along with making it messier and more political. If he can win the Presidency before these cases get to trial, he can stop them and not need to pardon himself. He still needs a way out in Georgia though.
lowenz on 9/8/2023 at 20:41
Quote Posted by R Soul
If Trump is found guilty, he'd no doubt say it's invalid, or a stich-up etc. For a self-pardon to apply, would he have have to acknowlege that he was
actually guilty, i.e. that he did do the things he was charged with? Would his broken diabolical narcissit ego allow that?
Good question! With twitter NO, but maybe with the justice system.....
Nicker on 10/8/2023 at 06:00
Quote Posted by heywood
He still needs a way out in Georgia though.
It's through the sewers, apparently.
In a stump speech, Rump made allegations that Georgia DA, Fani Willis had an affair with a gang leader she was prosecuting. He repeated the false claims in a campaign ad.
[video=youtube;H-q7bmsPm2E]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-q7bmsPm2E[/video]
WOW.
Just fucking WOW. Whenever we think Rump can't go any lower, there he is, digging a new basement for the snake pit.
