Cipheron on 10/7/2021 at 09:39
Quote Posted by Pyrian
Really? 'Cause disagreeing with that formed the core of your last argument: "...basically no mathematicians would have fallen for the incorrect thinking..."
My point was that even when stripped of the semantics, many people still object to the problem-as-stated. So the given reasoning for why people get it wrong doesn't stand up.
Quote:
Because the objection doesn't initiate rationally in the first place. They've already chosen their side before they get that far.
Okay, two things: (1) That's not a part of my argument in the first place, I'm talking about what makes it unintuitive and drives rationalization, and (2) It absolutely
is key to the arguments they're presenting, anyway; their analysis
always hinges on Monty's behavior not being what it is,
even though they expressly reject that in their formulation. Their formulations don't work if Monty acts as he's supposed to - but
do work if he
didn't.It still doesn't. Say Monty only offers the switch if you initially chose the car. In that scenario, switching always gives you a 0% chance. Or, say Monty only offers the switch if you picked a goat. In that scenario, switching always gives you a 100% chance. Yet these aren't answers that any of the nay-sayers give. That basically proves right there that these people are not in fact processing other alternatives in the first place. The logical answers, given a "motivated" Monty, are either 100% or 0%. 50% doesn't even come into it.
To get 50% you have to assume Monty acts entirely at random or randomizes what he does some way. You don't get 50% from Monty changing what he does based on your first pick. Like I said those give 0% or 100%, but when was the last time anyone used that reasoning? So the only way 50% makes sense is if you consider that Monty just yanks some door open at random and there's a 1-game-in-3 chance it's the car, so we've excluded those games from our possibility set, leaving you with three equal scenarios: 1/3 win on switch, 1/3 lose on switch, 1/3 lose because Monty fucked up. But this is clearly not a line of reasoning the vast majority of people are using when they get to 50%.
It's a case of a broken clock being right twice a day: basically any trick that randomizes Monty's actions just happens to also give the answer of 50%. This is, basically by coincidence the same as the wrong answer, which is also 50%. Any time you assume Monty knows what the fuck he's actually doing you get a different answer.
Dia on 10/7/2021 at 13:10
You're so thoughtful, Nicker. lol
Starker on 31/7/2021 at 21:21
The Slate unexpectedly finds some agreement with a (
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/stop-insulting-trump-voters-their-concerns-talk-them/) recent Washington Post opinion piece about treating Lord Dampnut's supporters nicely and finding common ground with them.
Quote:
(
https://slate.com/culture/2021/07/stop-insulting-trump-voters-washington-post-wise-brilliant-great-advice.html)
"Criticizing people for supporting Donald Trump is how we got Donald Trump, according to people who supported Donald Trump and dislike being criticized."
[...]
As we all come together to clean up the mess that some of us deliberately caused, it’s clear that insults will get us nowhere. Calling Trump voters “dumber than a bag of hammers” only reveals that you are unserious about moving forward as a country. Going on to clarify that you meant to say that Trump voters were “to a person, dumber than the dumbest bag of hammers at a hammer store that used to specialize in selling extremely dumb hammers before the health department shut it down for selling bags of hammers that were so dumb it was against the law” will do very little to reach across the political chasm. It may feel good to insult the people whose stupidity, hatred, and fear caused untold suffering all over the world. It may feel great. It may feel like sitting on the porch and taking your first sip of an ice cold beer after a hot day, or finding a $20 bill in your coat pocket, or seeing the face of an old friend who’s been gone for a long time. It may feel so, so great. But consider this: Don’t?[...]
lowenz on 31/7/2021 at 21:40
The problem is that's NOT an insult, it's the reality when you exit the post-truth world for a second :p
On the other hand, where are going the QAnonists now?
Pyrian on 1/8/2021 at 04:16
I mean... They're not going anywhere yet. I wonder if we'll even see Trump re-nominated for 2028?
Cipheron on 9/9/2021 at 04:37
Quote Posted by Pyrian
I mean... They're not going
anywhere yet. I wonder if we'll even see Trump re-nominated for 2028?
As for where they are now, it seems to be morphing into more general Covid conspiracy theories and more along the sovereign citizen lines. Just like they were able to shed previous "prediction" failures by merely moving past them, they've just done the same thing for Trump's loss. The whole election conspiracy theory served an important psychological bridge for that, since they could focus on that instead of having to think about how Trump's loss didn't fit the "The Plan" for "The Cabal". So election conspiracies serve a very important distraction for the Q horde.
this one was a good read:
(
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/13/qanon-radicalization-bernie-sanders-supporter-503295)
Quote:
I was radicalized overnight. I went to bed as a liberal, a die-hard Bernie Sanders supporter, social activist and a feminist. The next morning, I left the bed viewing Donald Trump — a man whom I had utterly despised — as a hero fighting a war against the Deep State. In the ensuing days my fiancé Dave would hardly recognize me, and our relationship would nearly be destroyed.
...
Dave wasn't handling the stay-at-home order well either: Without the ability to take extended weekends away to unwind from his demanding job, he became depressed and increasingly short-tempered. The more he let his anger leak out and at times explode toward me, the more I felt trapped inside the house and desperate for something to change.
It was after a day of his angry outbursts when I discovered QAnon. That night, Dave was asleep and I lay awake buzzing with stress. Tired of staring at the ceiling, I decided to watch the “Fall Cabal” YouTube series a friend of mine had told me about. “It's really weird. I'd love to get your opinion on it,” she messaged me a few days before along with a link. The 10 episodes wove together a narrative about “The Cabal,” supposedly a secret and satanic pedophile ring run by members of the liberal elite, and Trump's secret fight to overthrow them. I didn't sleep at all that night. Instead, I found dozens of articles and videos confirming my new political views. By the morning, I was a true believer.
...
Initially, believing in Q felt amazing, like being in some sort of mystical state or euphoria. For about six weeks, my fears about impending doom because of Covid-19, climate change and what I perceived as the threat of fascism were gone. The world felt safe and I felt energized, confident, creative and brimming with love. I'm not religious, but I kept thinking “Thank you, God. Thank you, God. Thank you, God.” I heard “Amazing Grace” playing in my mind. I was so relieved to stop hating Trump, whom I used to see as racist, sexist and a Hitler-wannabe.
...
But Dave didn't want to lose me. He agreed to learn anger management techniques and to watch “Fall Cabal.” He thought the series was full of crap, and tried to talk me out of my new beliefs. The more he tried, though, the less safe I felt in his presence and the more I turned to my rapidly growing community of QAnon friends.
...
Dave had persuaded me not to post about politics on Facebook while I was following Q, but a few times I couldn't help myself and I did end up losing friends. One of my old friends even called Dave and passionately tried to persuade him to leave me. A half dozen others told him, “I wouldn't blame you for leaving her.” I was astonished — I had done nothing bad and yet people were so antagonistic towards me. The more someone tried to push me to “wake up” and the more they engaged in name-calling, the deeper I went into QAnon, finding solace in the community of like-minded people with whom I had a shared reality.
...
It took me about five months to start suspecting something was off. No promised changes came — Q-followers believed that John F. Kennedy Jr. was alive and secretly working with Trump to overthrow the Cabal, but he never showed up. I started to doubt the “QAnon intel” I was reading. According to the community, “The Storm,” a mass arrest of politicians alleged to be in the Cabal, happened three separate times during the pandemic. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and others were supposedly arrested for crimes against humanity, a few times each. I thought, “These stories must be lying. They can't be arrested again and again.” Then Trump lost the election and it made me question the conspiracy further — his loss was not part of “The Plan.”
So that's a thing: often radicals of one end flip to being radicals of the other end, instead of ending up in the middle. note how she said her fear of Trump being a fascist went away when she got indoctrinated into QAnon's Trump-the-hero thing: what she actually discovered is what becoming one of the fascists feels like: the cognitive dissonance went away.
Another thought is that she probably never had very good critical thinking skill to begin with. She should have been skeptical the *first time* the QAnon intel told her that Obama and Clinton were arrested, but instead she started having doubts merely because it happened three+ times. I've met blitheringly stupid people from both ends of the political spectrum. Merely being a hardline lefty doesn't actually mean someone is smart enough to dissect the stuff they're reading. I have an ex-girlfriend who's a lefty and into all that witchcraft stuff and she's ... dumb as rocks.
---
In other sadder QAnon news, a QAnon believer violently murdered his own 2 little kids because he believed they had reptilian DNA: save your kids from The Cabal by merely killing them yourself.
lowenz on 9/9/2021 at 09:53
About ivermectin:
(
https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvz4yz/qanon-is-harassing-a-hospital-into-giving-bogus-covid-cure-ivermectin)
“I called Amita Resurrection Hospital and spoke with a male care provider in ICU. I gave him Veronica's name and stated that she had a legal right to try Ivermectin. He informed me that Ivermectin was not on the Amita protocol and Veronica would not receive it. When I tried to respond, he was rude, talked over me, and hung up on me,” Wood wrote on Telegram Tuesday evening.
Wood then urged his followers to “let your voices be heard,” calling the situation “medical tyranny. This is genocide. We cannot tolerate crimes against humanity.”These guys are completely mad and/or completely dangerous, only able to turn upside down the classic "leftist" arguments. And their goal is precisely that, to pervert "left" buzzwords and schemes to make them some pseudo-anarchist/libertarian propaganda tool for the "real" (GOP) Right. You know: Moldbug (Curtis Yarvin), Land, Bannon, these guys.....the "patriots".
What a bunch of insidious lunatics devoted to engagement strategies.
Cipheron on 9/9/2021 at 10:46
Quote Posted by lowenz
These guys are completely mad and/or completely dangerous, only able to turn upside down the classic "leftist" arguments. And their goal is precisely that, to pervert "left" buzzwords and schemes to make them some pseudo-anarchist/libertarian propaganda tool for the "real" (GOP) Right. You know: Moldbug (Curtis Yarvin), Land, Bannon, these guys.....the "patriots".
What a bunch of insidious lunatics devoted to engagement strategies.
It's always going to be hard to parse.
On one hand, they don't trust mainstream medicine and equate vaccines to irresponsible medical experiments, then in the next breath they're screaming that the doctors have to inject patients with any old random crap that happens to be lying around that we haven't tried yet. So ... they don't trust the clinical studies for vaccines so just start injecting random stuff to see if it works? Good logic.
But I get what you're saying about the language there too: tyranny, genocide and crimes against humanity because the doctors won't inject random untested shit into their patient.
BTW meed Canada's new queen of the Anons: Romana Didulo
(
https://podbay.fm/p/qanon-anonymous/e/1630711497)
She's claiming to be the new actual ruler (queen) of Canada and that there's going to be a Storm situation there, promising widespread executions including of business owners who require people to weak masks. She's promised to execute 2.7 million Canadians. She has a lot of followers online now, and it's leaking into the real world, and any time she says she's going to murder people, they all cheer. That's how fascism starts.
So that's the right wing: promise actual genocide and you're the hero now.
lowenz on 9/9/2021 at 14:34
I'm italian and I can say (being a "leftist" by far-right wingers standard) that "genuine" Fascism has never gone so far with "execution" claims and fantasies (when in power, years after the end of the first WW and its old veterans lunacy/PTSD )
Real fascists were bad but not totally insane like these guys.
These guys are plain bat shit crazy (see Bannon and his Breitbart "patriots").