demagogue on 5/12/2020 at 00:09
"Vote for me or the Democrats are going to DESTROY THE US!!" ... after four years of a Biden administration.
I bet people are going to start forgetting who's president after a year of Biden.
But maybe that's me trying to be optimistic. Wouldn't it be nice for a change?
Cipheron on 5/12/2020 at 01:51
I thought this is interesting but not sure where it goes, doesn't deserve it's own thread, and it kinda fits here due to the politics angle
(
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/04/christian-group-tears-down-mysterious-monolith-california-mountain)
A bunch of 'Monoliths' popping up as some sort of gag, and these have attracted curious sight-seers. This has apparently enraged right-wing Christians who go tear them down, sometimes replacing them with a cross. They were chanting "Christ is King" and apparently super-paranoid that "Antifa" were following them to stop them.
Are the cultists just like everywhere now, this stuff is just heating up.
catbarf on 5/12/2020 at 03:21
Quote Posted by heywood
I know this freak show is just step one in Trump's 2024 campaign.
The good news is four years is a long time for his age and lifestyle to catch up with him. And if he dies, I don't see anyone poised to take over the cult.
Cipheron on 5/12/2020 at 04:08
If somehow Trump ran in 2024 it would be a true referendum on Trump's first term vs Biden's first term. So that really depends how the next four years goes. Imagine losing twice to Biden.
demagogue on 5/12/2020 at 07:50
I could see Ivanka or Jared inheriting the cult. It is a cult after all.
Starker on 5/12/2020 at 11:39
I don't think they are Trumpy enough for the crowd. Junior, maybe, though he also has the charisma of a wet bus seat. But for sure, the Tom Cottons and his ilk can't wait to put Trumpism through the carwash and try to run their own brand of it. My own money is still on Tucker Carlson, though.
Oh, and Biden has said he doesn't want to run again, but there will certainly be an enormous pressure on him as an incumbent to do it.
Cipheron on 5/12/2020 at 12:04
The run from Clinton to Obama was actually the longest run of 2-term presidents ever, 3 in a row. The last time that happened was a run of presidents starting with George Washington, and all three of those presidents had the heroes of the revolutionary war thing going. If Trump had won a second term that would in fact be something that never happened before: 4 two-term presidents in a row. Unpresidented!
I actually had a feeling Trump wouldn't win a second term even when everyone I know was talking about incumbent advantage, because it's actually very rare to have so many two-termers in a row like we had after the Cold War ended, so that many "winners" in a row kind of lulled people to think the incumbent tends to win more often than they really do.
heywood on 5/12/2020 at 13:05
Regarding incumbent advantage, consider who has run for a second term and lost. Since 1900, there's only been a handful:
Trump
GHW Bush
Carter
Ford
Hoover
Taft
GHW Bush and Taft were both defeated because a new third party formed and split the Republican vote. And Ford was never elected in the first place.
Over the same time period, here are the Presidents who won a second term:
Obama
GW Bush
Clinton
Reagan
Nixon
Johnson
Eisenhower
Truman
FD Roosevelt
Coolidge
Wilson
T Roosevelt
So I think the incumbent advantage is real. That's one of the reasons why I didn't want Biden to win the nomination. But it worked out so far. And you know, given all that's happened this year, the primaries seem like such ancient history now.
lowenz on 5/12/2020 at 13:14
Quote Posted by demagogue
I could see Ivanka or Jared inheriting the cult. It is a cult after all.
Please hope not!
Jared=Iranian war
Cipheron on 5/12/2020 at 13:46
Quote Posted by heywood
Regarding incumbent advantage, consider who has run for a second term and lost. Since 1900, there's only been a handful:
Trump
GHW Bush
Carter
Ford
Hoover
Taft
GHW Bush and Taft were both defeated because a new third party formed and split the Republican vote. And Ford was never elected in the first place.
Over the same time period, here are the Presidents who won a second term:
Obama
GW Bush
Clinton
Reagan
Nixon
Johnson
Eisenhower
Truman
FD Roosevelt
Coolidge
Wilson
T Roosevelt
So I think the incumbent advantage is real. That's one of the reasons why I didn't want Biden to win the nomination. But it worked out so far. And you know, given all that's happened this year, the primaries seem like such ancient history now.
Oh no, i'm not saying that there's no incumbent advantage I was talking about people I interact with saying there was no way Trump would lose, because the incumbent "always" wins. Admittedly these were not politics heavy people but that's the argument they were going with, probably because the last 30 years has played out like that. Someone I was talking to made the argument then I mentioned Bush Senior and i could see a flicker go off in their eyes and they said "oh, yeah, forgot about him". So I guess they just blurred him in with Reagan. And also forgot that the 1970s happened.
So if 1/3 presidents fail at 1 term, so getting 3 in a row to do two terms is actually pretty rare. If you take 1/3 as the average chance of re-election then you'd get 3 in a row two-termers once every 1/27 presidents, so about twice in the history of the USA, and 4 in a row would have a probability of about 1/81, so about twice the length USA has existed.
Although, for Johnson and Coolidge I'm not sure they should be counted as a 2-term leaders, since they only actually won 1 election, one retired and the other lost a re-election bid. Both therefore left before they got a second shot.
