Starker on 4/11/2020 at 14:27
NYT has him at 227, with Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16) leaning/trending Biden.
demagogue on 4/11/2020 at 14:42
And the votes coming in now are absentee votes, so in theory they should only push Biden's lead.
The states Starker just listed would put Biden exactly on 270, the number he has to win to win.
It's really too close for comfort, but it looks like he'll make it... barring any court interference or the like.
Edit: Or a state splitting its electors, but we could also have faithless electors too. I guess those possibilities just show how dumb the electoral system is, to put the fate of the country in the hands of potentially so few.
Kolya on 4/11/2020 at 14:43
This is like watching a relative fight with suicide.
Jason Moyer on 4/11/2020 at 14:44
I'd like to see a faithless elector buffer. Because if he somehow would only get say 269 because of a faithless elector, the presidency would be decided by the next House, each state would get one vote, and the GOP is likely to still have more state caucuses there even though the DNC has a majority overall.
Jason Moyer on 4/11/2020 at 14:47
Holding on to what he has and taking one of the last 3 states would be enough to avoid problems imo. I still think he's going to win GA and PA and PA might not be close.
Renzatic on 4/11/2020 at 14:58
I doubt he'll win Pennsylvania. He's too far behind there.
demagogue on 4/11/2020 at 15:11
Thank goodness he doesn't have to now, but it really leaves no room for slipping anywhere else. :sweat:
Jason Moyer on 4/11/2020 at 15:14
5,441,186 votes counted so far in PA
76% of the estimated votes counted
5,441,186/0.76 = ~7.15M total votes - ~5.5M votes counted = ~1.65M votes left to count
1.65M * .784 (Biiden's current rate of winning absentee votes) = ~1.29M Biden votes left to count
1.65M - 1.29M = ~.36M Trump votes left to count
Add those into the votes that have been counted so far and you get 2.98M + 0.36M = ~3.34M votes for Trump and 2.39M + 1.29M = ~3.68M for Biden. This is probably why Biden's campaign is feeling confident about PA right now. I don't think the margin's going to be 320K, but there's still a good chance of it being in Sniffy Joe's favor.
faetal on 4/11/2020 at 15:16
What's the error range on that .784 though?
If it's a tight cluster, then sure.
Jason Moyer on 4/11/2020 at 15:17
I dunno, but with so many absentee votes coming from Allegheny and Philadelphia+suburbs still I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being more than 78.4%. I'm pretty sure that 78.4% has come from mostly Trump-leaning counties overall since basically the entire state other than Pittsburgh and Philly is Trump leaning.
