heywood on 4/11/2020 at 00:15

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Given that it's Texas, that could be people crawling over broken glass to vote FOR Trump :)

I don't really know. Like I said, thanks to COVID-19, my perspective is very limited. Around here, I see people driving their trucks around with Trump flags flying every day, Trump supporters waving flags to the traffic from highway over-passes during the commute, Trump supporters manning roundabouts, people wearing Trump shirts, houses and yards with Trump shit, and some businesses are putting up Trump signage even though it costs them customers. Trump has had a few rallies here that have been packed with thousands of people. And he's come back with TV ads for the home stretch. Biden hasn't been here since the primary in February and his surrogates draw tiny crowds of ~100 people. He's doing minimal advertising, and I haven't seen anyone canvassing for Biden yet. No mailers, no robocalls. Clinton had a significant get out the vote effort at the end, Biden's is zero. Even going by lawn signage, he's lagging behind Clinton.

The polls tell a completely different story. Biden has consistently led here, sometimes by >10%, so he might not consider it competitive. The gap in the polls has closed a little bit at the end, but it still looks safe for Biden. I'm very worried about the enthusiasm gap and the impact that might have on turnout. I'm hoping there is a silent but determined majority that will turn out for Biden even if they're not willing to show their support.



Prior to COVID-19, that would be a good sign. In the past, a higher percentage of Democrats voted early or by mail, so high early turnout was an indicator of high Democratic turnout. But COVID-19 makes the interpretation less clear.

Gryzemuis on 4/11/2020 at 01:16

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Florida 87% counted. Trump leads 1.6%. Not looking good. Maybe I should go to bed ...

demagogue on 4/11/2020 at 01:24

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Florida is concerning, but for Texas, although still only 32% reporting, Biden is already 200K ahead of Trump, 4 points, and every couple of minutes when it updates the gap has just been widening. It's amazing to watch.

Edit: Like just since the time I started this post, it's now 5 points and pushing 300K ahead.

Edit2: But expectation management, 10 minutes later Biden's lead is only ~1.7 points ahead, just under 150K, and it's jumping around as districts update in big chunks. So it's a bit crazy to watch it in too fine of time slices.

Edit3: Trump just overtook Biden in Texas, although still within 15K / 0.3 points. With Florida red, it's looking like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, & Wisconsin will be important this time around too. Edit4: About which fuuuuuck... =L

demagogue on 4/11/2020 at 01:48

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They use exit polls, asking people who they voted for as they're coming out, and then use statistical methods with the turnout numbers to estimate the full number. Although it can be very fast, the issue is the accuracy, which gets better over time but may be misleading early on. Just going by memory, I think it's been about this fast in the last few elections as well.

The thing here is that exit polls don't work for early voters, which was a big chunk of this election, but they're expected to lean blue anyway.

Jason Moyer on 4/11/2020 at 05:31

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Don't be surprised if Trump has a lead in PA in the teens today. We're basically not going to have any mail in votes counted until tomorrow at the earliest, and maybe as late as Friday.

Also, NYTimes seems to think Biden has a better than 50/50 shot of taking Georgia since the two big urban counties have barely had any votes counted so far.

(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html)