Gryzemuis on 3/11/2020 at 13:59
Good luck today, USA !
These elections are about the US, of course. But they will have an impact on the rest of the world. On the TV stations I can receive (Dutch, German, Belgian) there have been a lot of programs about Trump and the upcoming elections over the last month. The whole world is watching today.
heywood on 3/11/2020 at 14:36
Quote Posted by Starker
Isn't that a given? I mean, does anyone really think that white grievance politics will magically disappear or that the QAnon believers will suddenly come to their senses or that Lord Dampnut and his supporters will just go quietly away and not try to sabotage the next administration as much as humanly possible?
I don't know what kind of truth and reconciliation you're going to need or what's even possible at this point, but if Biden wins, that will be the just the first step in a very long road of trying to undo at least part of the damage inflicted on the US both domestically as well as abroad. And that's not even mentioning all the long-running and deep-seated problems with race, debt, health care, education, gun violence, climate, criminal system, etc.
I think the Republican electorate is more unified than it's ever been. Trump got the Christian social conservatives, traditional pro-big business/small government economic conservatives, libertarians, the alt-right, and conspiracy nuts all rallying behind him. Even if many traditional Republicans don't really like him, they support him. The only Republicans who aren't behind him are the moderate Republicans in the Northeast, and they don't even matter to the national Republican party because their states are reliably blue in Presidential elections. He lost them, but he pulled in a lot of blue collar former Democrats who helped him swing Midwestern states in 2016.
Trump also brought the conservative media together behind him. Conservative media, especially talk radio, used to undermine candidates like GWB, McCain, and Romney.
If Trump loses, it will be interesting to see whether all these groups still accept him as the party leader. If not, I don't see any other Republican who can fill that void, and then we go back to infighting between the factions of the party.
Starker on 3/11/2020 at 14:45
Sure, he has his base locked tight, but the question is whether owning the libs is sustainable as a political ideology when all you play is a game of subtraction. Anecdotally, I've heard from many Republicans that it was Lord Dampnut who gave them an excuse to finally break away from the party and it doesn't look like the younger generation is really taking to him either. And college educated Republican women (and even men) seem to be breaking away from him in droves. And it's not only happening in reliably blue states. Hell, just look at all the states that are suddenly in play this time.
That said, though, maybe it's my natural pessimism, but I'm actually inclined to agree that the overall picture is looking somewhat like this:
Inline Image:
https://i.imgur.com/wqdWQ5o.jpgheywood on 3/11/2020 at 16:38
Quote Posted by Starker
Sure, he has his base locked tight, but the question is whether owning the libs is sustainable as a political ideology when all you play is a game of subtraction. Anecdotally, I've heard from many Republicans that it was Lord Dampnut who gave them an excuse to finally break away from the party and it doesn't look like the younger generation is really taking to him either. And college educated Republican women (and even men) seem to be breaking away from him in droves. And it's not only happening in reliably blue states. Hell, just look at all the states that are suddenly in play this time.
Despite all of that, he has a viable strategy to get re-elected and his approval rating has actually climbed slightly during his Presidency. It looks like it's coming down to a half-dozen or so states which are toss-ups with close polls.
To maximize their weight in the electoral college, the vast majority of states select electors by a winner-take-all approach. And voting is not compulsory. So it's possible to have the majority of the country against you and still be elected President.
Starker on 3/11/2020 at 19:06
Yes, he can win. But it's not like the last time when he won against very disinterested Democrats and people casting protest votes and people willing to vote for him just to see what would happen. This time there's an enormous turnout and Democrats are fired up like they haven't been since at least 2008 or maybe never. And yes, big enthusiasm on one side will also serve to turn out the other side, but has Lord Dampnut actually managed to expand his base meanwhile?
If Biden holds all the states Clinton won plus Wisconsin and Michigan (which are looking really good right now for Biden), he only needs one more battleground state to win. And there are lots of battleground states in play right now -- even Texas and Georgia are within the realm of possibility, but there's also Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio.
In any case, one thing holds true, Republicans have truly and irrevocably tied himself to him. Though, given Lord Dampnut's pendance of firing up Democrats, even a win won't necessarily mean they'll float:
[video=youtube;WEO4bGyZtjg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEO4bGyZtjg[/video]
heywood on 3/11/2020 at 21:42
Watch Florida and North Carolina. They are likely to be the first of the swing states to report results. If Biden wins Florida, Trump's most likely path to victory requires him to win the rest of the South, Pennsylvania, and one of the Northern Midwest states. That will be difficult. But if Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, it really becomes a toss-up, or maybe the odds start to favor Trump.
I really don't see any evidence of Democrats being fired up outside of the cities where the protest movements are. My perspective is admittedly narrow by virtue of being up here in one corner of the US and having stopped traveling since the pandemic. But I'm not seeing anything remotely fired up about the Democratic party here.
Gryzemuis on 3/11/2020 at 21:50
BBC News reports that someone is making millions of robocalls to voters. Lots of elderly. The robocalls claim there are long lines at the voting booths. And that people should stay at home today, and go vote tomorrow. Of course you can't vote tomorrow.
Unbelievable. But it is a true story.
Starker on 3/11/2020 at 22:55
Quote Posted by heywood
Watch Florida and North Carolina. They are likely to be the first of the swing states to report results. If Biden wins Florida, Trump's most likely path to victory requires him to win the rest of the South, Pennsylvania, and one of the Northern Midwest states. That will be difficult. But if Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, it really becomes a toss-up, or maybe the odds start to favor Trump.
Yes, from what I gather, those two should also be among the first to report most of their results (though Florida apparently has the panhandle in a later time zone, so could still be a bit dicey there), since they are very fast at processing the results and have tons of early votes. Then Georgia and Ohio, which apparently tend to have some delays, and then Texas and Arizona. All of them poll as toss-ups well within the margin of error, so of course it's entirely plausible Lord Dampnut wins them all and the entire thing will come down to Pennsylvania where Biden is polling in the lead currently, but his remarks on banning fracking on federal lands in the last debate might work against him. That's also the place where they don't start counting some votes until the next day, so it could be a good opportunity for Lord Dampnut to try to declare victory before all the votes are counted.
As for winning one of the other Northern Midwest states, based on the polling it seems to be a really tall order for Lord Dampnut, but nothing is set in stone, of course.
Quote Posted by heywood
I really don't see any evidence of Democrats being fired up outside of the cities where the protest movements are. My perspective is admittedly narrow by virtue of being up here in one corner of the US and having stopped traveling since the pandemic. But I'm not seeing anything remotely fired up about the Democratic party here.
The turnout so far seems to indicate they care at least a little bit. I think Texas had more voters vote early this year than in the entire 2016 election, for example. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think there's a lot of enthusiasm for Biden, but if the 10 hour voting lines are any indication, a lot of people seem ready to crawl over broken glass just to cast a vote against Lord Dampnut.
catbarf on 3/11/2020 at 23:03
Quote Posted by Starker
The turnout so far seems to indicate they care at least a little bit. I think Texas had more voters vote early this year than in the entire 2016 election, for example. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think there's a lot of enthusiasm for Biden, but if the 10 hour voting lines are any indication, a lot of people seem ready to crawl over broken glass just to cast a vote against Lord Dampnut.
I would agree with that. Anecdotally, I've observed a lot more people in my social circles- a mix of political ideologies- willing to hold their nose and vote Biden. It's absolutely not enthusiasm so much as motivation, so less 'fired up' and more like 'aw fuck not another four years of this', but either way a vote's a vote.
I did my part a month ago via mail-in and confirmed my county received it, so now all that's left is the heavy drinking, and I've got a tiki cocktail book and nine bottles of rum all ready to go.
