✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

june gloom on 2/11/2020 at 20:43

My roommates and I are going as a group to the polls tomorrow. None of us are comfortable going alone. There was a pro-Trump riot in Northampton yesterday which has us all on edge -- the fact that it was in famously queer and lib/lefty Northampton feels like a threat.

I don't think Biden is going to win. The GOP is too desperate, too used to cheating, the Dems are too stupid, too obsessed with playing by rules their opponent ignores. Trump is going to win and this country's gonna go to hell in a handbasket. And some of my friends are probably going to kill themselves.

SubJeff on 2/11/2020 at 21:28

Really that bad? I don't mean to be prying, or rude, but would Trump supporters (and I think I know they type of voter suppressing c£@%s you're talking about) recognise that you and your friends are unlikely to vote for Trump? Or is your personal presentation none, errrr, mainstream such that you'd be a target for right wing a-holes?

And kill themselves? Why on earth would they do that?

heywood on 2/11/2020 at 21:57

Quote Posted by Nameless Voice

And then the supreme court will rule that Trump interfered with the election through mass voter suppression, and throw him in jail.

... just kidding, of course they won't.

I did see that early voter turnout in Texas was already higher than that state's entire voter turnout in the last election, which I found interesting.

Quote Posted by SubJeff

The predictions are the highest turn out for decades.

heywood - I think it's fair to say more than half the votes have already been cast.

Yeah, it seems everybody is expecting a record turnout overall based on the amount of early and absentee voting. But it's hard to say just how big it will be until we see who's left to show up tomorrow. Texas voters are doing great. In my state, there's been a record number of absentee ballots requested and returned so far, but it's still only about 1/4 of the total number of 2016 votes. There's fewer polling places this year due to COVID-19, and COVID-19 is spiking again, so if we have low turnout tomorrow we might not break the record here after all.

Also, most people are assuming that high turnout is good for Biden. But with Trump, nothing seems to be a given. I think it's unpredictable. It could be a decisive victory for Biden, or another squeaker for Trump.

I do expect to see cases of intimidation, conflict, or shenanigans at at least some polling places in Democratic-heavy districts. But hopefully only a few.

SubJeff on 2/11/2020 at 22:03

Well, I think Trump's going to win again anyway, but I heard 92 million had already voted yesterday.

demagogue on 2/11/2020 at 22:14

Quote Posted by Nameless Voice

The earliest on-the-day voting won't open for around another 18 hours, if my maths is right.

I figured by the time discussion got rolling it'd already be the evening before the day, but more than that I was just referring to the fact that, going by reports and people's posts across the board, the US is already entering crazytown. Full-on crazytown is already upon us then.

Yes, Texas had a 600% turnout for the under 30 vote over 2016 just in early voting, (youth and early voting both lean blue), which seems like it should be unheard of, but as a rich, young, and migration-positive state, it's a lot more diverse than it gets credit for. The polling has been flipping wildly in the last few days, though, so who knows what to expect...

Edit. The relevance of the high early and mail-in voting, if you haven't read yet, is that Trump is expected to declare victory based on the early direct returns and ignore the mail-in returns as "fraudulent", although even that only works if it's close enough, and of course the states have their own rules for declaring their electors whatever he says. So I don't think it's too much of a real threat. The more proximate issue is instability in the streets, I mean Trumpkins taking to the streets a la those truck caravans running Biden's people off the road that embarassed my state yesterday. I mean it's a given the Left take to the streets, but if the Right does it too, things could get crazy even by the standards of crazytown.

Really I don't know what to expect, which is part of what makes it unnerving.

Vae on 2/11/2020 at 22:18

Trump will indeed win.

The only question is how big the win will be. If it's a landslide victory, then the Left will have a difficult time with an insurrection attempt. However, if the margin is relatively narrow, this will embolden the BLM/ANTIFA neo-Marxists to push for a "revolution for justice", and they will ramp up their rioting to the point where it gives rise to the possibility of a hot civil war.

SubJeff on 2/11/2020 at 22:48

:rolleyes:

Kolya on 2/11/2020 at 23:16

So, uh, how long until this nightmare is over? When do you go voting and when can we hope to get some reliable projections?

Asking for the rest of the world here.

Nameless Voice on 2/11/2020 at 23:28

From what I understand, it's complicated. It generally takes a lot of longer to count postal votes than in-person votes.
Trump will likely declare victory on election night, before they've counted the mail-in ballots.

june gloom on 2/11/2020 at 23:34

Quote Posted by SubJeff

You're always prying and rude, SubJeff, don't worry about it. One of my roommates is black and trans in a heavily white area, the other is white-passing hispanic and female-presenting non-binary. Also Trumpers are going after just about anyone they suspect of not being enough of a Trumper, regardless of appearance. I'm not expecting trouble at the polling place but this is a somewhat conservative area and it's just better to be safe than sorry. Strength in numbers, etc.

Quote Posted by SubJeff

And kill themselves? Why on earth would they do that?

Probably because they're queer/trans, poor and already in extremely poor mental health in a country that does not have adequate or accessible mental health care and that is increasingly hostile on a personal and legal level to queer and poor people? You need to get out of your little upper-class bubble. Every other post of yours is you acting shocked at how bad things are in the US then dismissing it on the basis of it can't be as bad as all that, nevermind that not only do you not live here, but you happen to live in a country that is just as bad, if not worse in some cases, and you ignore that too. I have a trans friend who's been dealing with a lot of mental health stuff (especially after a recent death in the family) who has openly talked about how if Trump is still here next year, she won't be, and we're all worried about her. Why don't you tell her she's overreacting?