Renzatic on 16/10/2020 at 21:15
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is a good example of the inner workings of the conspiratorial mindset. You have one good point set aside three random points that don't prove much of anything of your original statements, and a random propaganda opinion piece from a well known apologist site.
It's all mostly spew. Mostly disconnected points that can be vaguely alluded to as proof of some greater conspiracy. "If they're willing to do this, then..."
heywood on 16/10/2020 at 21:30
Quote Posted by Pyrian
What do you think a poll
is? It neither
is nor is
intended to be a predictor of the future.
The reason why campaigns conduct polls is to help guide their strategy and tactics, and to allocate their limited resources (money, campaign appearances, etc.)
Quote Posted by Renzatic
As for the polls, it's already been stated, but the biggest issue wasn't an issue with the polling, rather the way the pundits chose to read them. Hillary never held a massive lead over Trump, and the talking heads took too many things for granted, such as the rust belt voting blue as it has for the last umpteen presidential elections, and the now quaint notion that America would NEVER vote for a loudmouth demagogue with no prior political experience. They assumed it'd go to Hillary by a hair.
But it didn't. The margin of error went to Trump, and he won it by that hair everyone assumed was reserved for Hillary. The rest is history.
The pollsters have been a lot more cautious since. The only reason why they're saying things look good for Biden now is because he's polling well beyond the margin of error, about as strongly as Obama did in 2008. Though as FiveThirtyEight states, this is all based on surveys, questionnaires, and extrapolated outcomes. If the people who have been surveyed don't go out and vote, then it doesn't matter how strongly America supports Biden. He'll lose.
Have a look at the following polls from 2016:
(
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html)
(
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html)
(
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html)
(
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html)
I think those polls are the reason why Clinton made zero stops in Wisconsin and only 4 each in Michigan and New Hampshire. Trump spent 5 days in Wisconsin, 7 days in Michigan, and 9 in New Hampshire.
Right now, the RCP average has Biden up by:
Wisconsin +6.3
Michigan +7.2
Pennsylvania +5.6
New Hampshire +11
Florida +1.4
North Carolina +3.3
Arizona +4.0
Nevada +5.2
Ohio +0.6
Minnesota +5.6
On the same day (10/16) in 2016, Clinton was up by:
Wisconsin +6.5
Michigan +11.4
Pennsylvania +7
New Hampshire +4.3
Florida +3.5
North Carolina +2.7
Arizona -0.7
Nevada +4.0
Ohio +1.7
Minnesota (only two data points in Oct but they were +8 and +11)
As of today, compared to the same day in 2016, Biden has a bigger lead in 3 out of those 10 key states than Clinton did, and Clinton had a bigger lead in 7 of 10 than Biden does. And Clinton only won 2 out of those 10 states. So, no I don't agree that things are looking better for Biden than Clinton based on the polls.
Renzatic on 16/10/2020 at 22:19
(
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/biden_vs_trump_compared_to_clinton_vs_trump.html#!) Look at this, and you'll see the overall advantage Biden has relative to Hillary.
I'd say the one thing that most likely hurt Hillary in the runup to the election would be Comey reopening his investigation into the email server. There's also the fact that Democrat turnout was much lower than expected during the 2016 election. Hillary wasn't exactly an inspiring candidate, and couldn't drive people to the polls in the same numbers that Obama did. Take this general apathy from what should've been her core base, couple it with Comey's surprise announcement a week before the election, and a moderate center lacking any real faith in both candidates, but willing to settle for the devil they don't know over the devil they do, and you have the recipe for Hillary's sunk bid for the presidency.
Biden doesn't have these problems. For one, we're in the midst of a recession, which doesn't bode well for any incumbent president during an election season. Trump's approach to combating the coronavirus has been an utter failure, and continues to reflect badly upon him. Biden has a long, fairly clean history as a moderate, and no scandal has been able to stick to him, despite efforts from the Republicans. And last, but certainly not least, Trump being Trump has keyed up the Democrats in a way they haven't been keyed up since Obama's first run for the presidency.
Biden is in a much better position overall than Hillary was at this same point in time. Though with this said, his victory is far from guaranteed. I think the biggest change between now and 2016 is that no one is taking anything for granted anymore.
SubJeff on 16/10/2020 at 22:49
Hol' up.
Did Pyrian actually think I'm a Trump supporter? Lol
Dude, the DEMOCRATS are too right wing for me! I just think America is so messed up that he'll get voted in again. Go and re-read what I said with your tongue in your cheek and think about it. The guy is a car crash that never stops. I'm just watching the show and it's incredible.
I think Trump will win and even if he doesn't he'll never have to answer for any of his nonsense, nor do any jail time. Why? Because life is unfair and America is the laughing stock of the democratic world.
june gloom on 16/10/2020 at 23:16
Quote Posted by Renzatic
I think you're reading too much into his statement, Pyrian. Subjeff has some goofy stances on some shit, and does like to piss people off for the simple sake of pissing them off, but I've never seen him be an outright Trump supporter before.
"Goofy stances" is an amazingly toothless way of describing his patriarchal views. Very on brand.
ETA: That being said, SubJeff may be a lot of things, but I'll grant even he is above supporting this one, particular racist authoritarian yam.
heywood on 16/10/2020 at 23:22
But that's a national poll, which means nothing at all because the election isn't decided based on a national popular vote. The election will be decided by a handful of states, and in most of those states Biden isn't doing as well as Clinton was at this point in the election. That is, if polls are to believed. And my opinion is that polls aren't indicative of the outcome. This election is still wide open and Biden will lose just as Clinton did if Democratic voters get complacent and assume Biden is a shoe-in based on the media talking up his national poll numbers.
Renzatic on 16/10/2020 at 23:33
There's really no way to tell how it'll play out until everything is said and done. People could be complacent, lazy, or hell, the polls could be wrong.
Though that said, it seems to be that Pennsylvania is the state to look out for this year, with almost every analysis stating that whoever wins it, wins the election. Right now, (
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/) Biden has a 6.8% lead there, which is very promising for him, but...
...it's also the one place where shenanigans are most likely to happen. Everyone is expecting it to look like a Trump victory on election night, only to see it swing back over to Biden as the mail-in votes are tallied over the next week. Expect all the bickering, recounts, and court cases to be focused here.
SubJeff on 16/10/2020 at 23:34
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Subjeff has some goofy stances on some shit, and does like to piss people off for the simple sake of pissing them off, but I've never seen him be an outright Trump supporter before.
Dude, that hurts. None of my stances are "goofy", I just say it how it is and a lot of my stances have some roundabout way of being informed by science.
I do not "like" to piss people off, but saying it how I see it sometimes means you won't always like the cut of my jib.
Quote Posted by june gloom
"Goofy stances" is an amazingly toothless way of describing his patriarchal views. Very on brand.
ETA: That being said, SubJeff may be a lot of things, but I'll grant even he is above supporting this one, particular racist authoritarian yam.
"Patriarchal" is not a totally unfair assessment, I'll give you that. I'm just a bit of a lefty authoritarian and the lefty liberals find that hard to swallow.
And no, of course I don't support Trump.
I do know, a little, of how a lot of people in the UK and Europe see the political situation though and it's not too dissimilar to me. Trump is seen as a clown, a joke, but a dangerous one at that. And we were not surprised he was elected, nor will we be if he is elected again. I think the other Euro-bods on here would agree with me on that, no?
The USA voting system is, the the UK one, flawed. I think SD has some strong views on this too, but basically the problem is both systems can be abused by tactical voting. And thus we get popular fools in power. Such is life.
Vae on 17/10/2020 at 00:30
It is a near certainty that Trump will win the election. However, it is likely that there will be another coup attempt, post-election night.
Currently we are in a state of cold civil war, which can turn hot after the election, if certain possibilities were to occur.
Renzatic on 17/10/2020 at 00:44
Quote Posted by Vae
However, it is likely that there will be another coup attempt, post-election night.
Another coup? We had one before?
Quote Posted by Vae
Currently we are in a state of cold civil war, which can turn hot after the election, if certain possibilities were to occur.
I love the subtly of this oh so very slightly implied threat.
Anyway, $5 says he never replies to this. He doesn't want to risk fraternizing with the enemy.
