Pyrian on 5/10/2020 at 19:53
Biden gained about a percentage point in the averages, which wouldn't be a lot except that the race has been so stable thus far. But the data can't distinguish between the release of Trump's tax information, the debate, the Supreme Court vacancy, and Trump getting Covid-19. All? One? None? Who knows.
EDIT: Sheesh, I forgot about the SCotUS.
Nicker on 5/10/2020 at 19:57
I think the issue isn't going to be how the population is split but how many people vote and how successful Trumpian Voter Suppression Tactics And Terrorists are.
Gryzemuis on 5/10/2020 at 21:00
And don't forget that 4 years ago, almost everybody, including the Republicans, Trump himself and of course Melania, were sure that Hillary was gonna win. Only Michael Moore had a hunch that the voters in "Trump country" were gonna do the unexpected, and vote Trump over Hillary. Nobody should be complacent that Biden is gonna win this. The race ain't over until after the elections. I hope Biden is gonna win (to be exact: I hope Trump is gonna lose). But I fear the worst.
nemyax on 5/10/2020 at 22:06
Quote Posted by SubJeff
I predict he will recover and then win the election.
And, immediately, have to fight off a coup.
Bluegrime on 6/10/2020 at 01:47
Perhaps it is an unpopular or at least unorthodox view but I would consider there to be an advantage to Trump winning: It will be a clean break. The sentiment among people my own age (and those younger from whom I steal youth) is that politics is a disgusting thing. Not just in a "haha politicians, right?" sort of way either. The Democrats have snubbed the wants of their younger base two elections in a row to push candidates with dubious merit and little support. Many young Republicans are ironic hyper patriot doomers or traditionalists disgusted by the antics of Trump. The overwhelming theme in the conversations I have about politics is that things must change. Joe Biden is not change and a potential 8 years of having a lamed ruler does not sit well with anyone. If Biden through some circumstance is forced to abdicate the Presidency before the end of his term then it guarantee another gigantic clusterfuck election and probably another dog and pony show about impeachment or some other crap.
If Trump wins it will be another 4 years of having a quarrelsome idiot at the head but at the end of his presidency there will be an open seat. Both parties will have to actually run candidates to win against one another. There will not be a narrative of "we must unseat the current president!" and I suspect the average age of nominees will drop dramatically. I hope, perhaps against hope, that there will also be a drifting back to more moderate waters by both parties. I would consider more people to be disaffected by the current state of politics than not at this point and there are many floating votes that someone with a reasonable perspective could ride to office. I'm not going to flamebait and say what does or does not qualify as reasonable but I think there are many people who would vote for a President they agreed with on 6/10 issues, possibly even 5/10, as long as that candidate showed themselves to be articulate and able to navigate what are sure to be troubled times.
I do not buy into fear mongering that there is a certain and inescapable doom for American hegemony but if left to a freefall like it has been in the last few years it would seem inevitable. The United States cannot continue down the path it has been. There is no point to taking a partisan stance and point fingers because there is so much blame to be spread that we could spend our lives doing that and nothing else. That is a primary reason I hope to see a "clean break" election in 2024. We cannot have every campaign run on a basis of "well you fucked this up!" which it will surely be with Biden, as it was with Trump, as it was with Obama 2012, as it was with Bush 04, et-al. An election without an incumbent President to run against will force people to actually come forward with solutions and run dynamic campaigns.
Then again maybe we will all burn with Yellowstone erupts or the seas turn to blood or some other calamity. It seems as likely as any other outcome.
Starker on 6/10/2020 at 02:26
Biden has said he sees himself as a transition candidate and won't seek re-election.
demagogue on 6/10/2020 at 02:42
I tend to think that the perception that politics is a joke (both parties are the same, it's all a conspiracy, etc.) largely comes from internal factors and not external ones. I think they're mostly low information voters not bothering to read the newspaper or follow politics, so it doesn't matter who the candidates or policies are; politics or the parties perpetually "need to change". That's of course not sustainable, so I think it's important to discount what they think they want and instead focus on political literacy and encouraging them to actually read a newspaper and other sources of political information to raise the quality and value of public opinion overall. Or rather, the solution isn't to ignore public opinion, but to raise its level to speak for the public's best interest.
Actually there is the obvious alternative, which is a revolutionary government sweeping into power, but then the perpetual mantra becomes "we must preserve the revolution", no matter how much social destruction it causes. This is the even stronger reason to dispel the illusion that "all politics needs to fundamentally change", because it leaves them only one way out, and then great, now we live in a totalitarian state, who could have expected it? =L
Pyrian on 6/10/2020 at 02:45
Quote Posted by Bluegrime
The overwhelming theme in the conversations I have about politics is that things must change. Joe Biden is not change... I hope, perhaps against hope, that there will also be a drifting back to more moderate waters by both parties.
Biden is very much a moderate. That's a big part of the reason
why so much of the left is so unhappy with him in the first place.
Quote Posted by Bluegrime
I'm not going to flamebait and say what does or does not qualify as reasonable but I think there are many people who would vote for a President they agreed with on 6/10 issues, possibly even 5/10, as long as that candidate showed themselves to be articulate and able to navigate what are sure to be troubled times.
Basically Hillary Clinton.
Quote Posted by Bluegrime
There is no point to taking a partisan stance and point fingers because there is so much blame to be spread that we could spend our lives doing that and nothing else.
You can't solve problems without identifying them. I hope that the Biden administration "drains the swamp" and goes after all the prior corruption and lawlessness in the way that the Obama administration really didn't.
Quote Posted by Bluegrime
An election without an incumbent President to run against will force people to actually come forward with solutions and run dynamic campaigns.
Again, it sounds like you want a repeat of the 2016 election, as if
that worked out so well.
Nicker on 6/10/2020 at 03:57
Quote:
If Trump wins it will be another 4 years of having a quarrelsome idiot at the head but at the end of his presidency there will be an open seat.
That's not very likely. When Trump assumed the Presidency, I think many of us believed that Trump would be an embarrassment, an encumbrance and an inconvenience but not an existential threat to the USA and the world.
If he wins, he will embrace his role as the face of a bloodless coup and pervert The Union, believing himself to be the Chosen One, while ignorantly fulfilling the will of evil men. If he wins or refuses to lose, almost every effort to stabilize global politics, since WW2, will be undone.
Trump is not a bump in the road.