lowenz on 16/2/2020 at 16:06
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
Do you form your thoughts by pulling words out of raffle drum filled with phrases like "nothingburger", "whataboutism", "confirmation bias" and "reality has a left wing bias"?
Yes but I'm really really lucky, 100% lucky, so everything is
right.
Speaking of the
right side, you can be 100% lackey too!
Oooops, my bad. The words keep flowing out!
Starker on 16/2/2020 at 17:58
Wow... the iamverysmart people are out in force today. I wonder if it's the moon of something.
First the totally unbiased logical deduction guy posts a picture meant to imply that a crease in someone's dress somehow means they are a man, cause it's apparently completely logical to assume that people would walk around in front of the cameras with a throbbing erection.
And then the top of his class financial genius somehow manages to lack even a rudimentary understanding of statistics and what sampling bias is, given that the data he presents as proof is just an internet questionnaire filled out by the readers of a blog (and whoever wanted to mess with it) and as such proves exactly as much as the paper it's printed on.
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
Also:
Quote:
5. A commenter on Lemoine's tweet links to this blog post by someone who
found the same thing in the General Social Survey. The General Social Survey is much larger and more rigorous than my survey, and there's no reason to care what my survey has to say when there are GSS results available.
Thank you for the link. That actually made me more confident in the validity of the information.
In any case, maybe don't go celebrating just yet:
Quote:
Philippe Lemoine says:
February 12, 2020 at 7:36 pm ~new~
For what it's worth, I never imagined this would blow up like this when I posted it, let alone be mentioned on Infowars... It's just something I did in 5 minutes after the idea occurred to me to check in the data from your survey. (Indeed, I made a mistake in the first chart, which I corrected in another tweet in the same thread, but I just saw that Infowars had used the chart with the error.) When I want to do more careful data analysis, I do so on my blog, as I don't think Twitter is a well-suited medium for that. Anyway, I basically agree with the points you made, most of which I had also made in discussion on Twitter, although to be clear I don't believe the association between mental illness and far-left ideology can be completely explained away by this kind of confounding. (I suspect there is a similar, though perhaps not as strong association with far-right ideology, but I'm less confident in this case, because there were very few respondents who identified as far-right in the survey so the confidence intervals are huge and that association is not observed in the GSS. Speaking of which, just so you know, I replicated the finding of the blogger you linked to above with the data from the 2018 edition of the GSS, though the between-group differences were not as striking. I will post this on Twitter when I have time for people who are interested.) The reason I don't believe the result can be totally explained away in that way is that, as I said on Twitter, given the size of the effect, one would have to make assumptions that I regard as implausible for that to be the case.
Finally, one thing I should add is that the GSS is not in fact larger than your survey, at least not if we're talking about the sample size. In fact, it's the opposite, the sample is much larger in your survey, but as you say it's not representative. I have already spent way too much time debating this stuff, which again I never imagined would blow up like that, so I don't intend to discuss it further here, but I just wanted to make a few clarifications myself.
Vae on 16/2/2020 at 18:25
:laff:...Ironically, if you were more intelligent, you would have detected that I wasn't serious about that proposition, and instead realized the comedic value. This, along with your servitude to your ideological sensitivities has blunted your perception and left you spinning like fool.
So the jokes on you...But thanks for the laugh.
Nicker on 16/2/2020 at 18:51
You assume it is a worthy waste of time to sluice your shit for a few flecks of bad humour. What happened here is that you POEwned yourself, i.e. serious Vae and joker Vae are indistinguishable.
Tony_Tarantula on 16/2/2020 at 19:03
Quote Posted by lowenz
Yeah, "marxist". Plenty of them in 2020 :D
LOL.
Of course a mad alt-righter can say (->
SELF-DECLARED) he's a marxist to blame on the marxism. So these statistics are pure bullshit at its finest.
That's conjecture. Until you prove that's actually occurring it's just conjecture.
The second point: I've said as much before because both are authoritarian ideologies. What's your point?
Quote:
Finally, one thing I should add is that the GSS is not in fact larger than your survey, at least not if we're talking about the sample size. In fact, it's the opposite, the sample is much larger in your survey, but as you say it's not representative. I have already spent way too much time debating this stuff, which again I never imagined would blow up like that, so I don't intend to discuss it further here, but I just wanted to make a few clarifications myself.
For someone patting themselves on the back about "understanding statistics" you don't seem to understand much about the topic. Do you know how many samples it takes to construct a 90% confidence in a one-tailed T-test without googling it?
I doubt it so go ahead and google it now. I guarantee it's a much smaller number than you think.
Besides which this isn't exactly a new phenomenon. Gallup found the same thing back in 2007 well before this whole "alt-right" was even a thing and it was just "right".
(
https://news.gallup.com/poll/102943/republicans-report-much-better-mental-health-than-others.aspx)
Quote:
PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats or independents to rate their mental health as excellent, according to data from the last four November Gallup Health and Healthcare polls. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans report having excellent mental health, compared to 43% of independents and 38% of Democrats. This relationship between party identification and reports of excellent mental health persists even within categories of income, age, gender, church attendance, and education.
The basic data -- based on an aggregated sample of more than 4,000 interviews conducted since 2004 -- are straightforward.
Something that MIGHT skew the data though is that there's a hell of a lot more far-left than far right people out there:
Inline Image:
https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FT_17.10.20_polarization_ConsLib_featuredTEST.pngRenzatic on 16/2/2020 at 19:05
Quote Posted by Vae
:laff:...Ironically, if you were more intelligent, you would have detected that I wasn't serious about that proposition, and instead realized the comedic value. This, along with your servitude to your ideological sensitivities has blunted your perception and left you spinning like fool.
So the jokes on you...But thanks for the laugh.
This grandiose abuse of sesquipedalian verba you so openly put on display are but a pathetic, verily transparent attempt to buttress the otherwise feebleness of the arguments you field. Your loquaciousness is naught but the preening of a ragged peacock proudly displaying it's gilded turds.
Vae on 16/2/2020 at 19:12
Quote Posted by Nicker
serious Vae and joker Vae are indistinguishable.
Thanks for qualifying your cognitive limitations...From now on when I speak directly to you, I will express concepts in crude, basic terms, devoid of nuance and satire, in order to maximize our personal communication.
hopper on 16/2/2020 at 19:17
Quote Posted by Vae
:laff:...Ironically, if you were more intelligent
If you were more intelligent, everybody here wouldn't think you're a wiseass.
But everybody here thinks you're a wiseass.
