Kolya on 25/2/2007 at 19:49
So according to some article by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker (which I can't find, I only read articles about it) a Pentagon group has worked out plans for the US government for a one-day-strike in Iran.
I've heard about this kind of plans a few times and I guess it's obligatory for the US to have them "just in case". And I hope that's all there is to it.
Still I would like to know from people (who may have read the original article, or know S. Hersh) what the chances of realizing these plans are. How serious is this? Could the US even afford a new war financially? And politically?
Kolya on 25/2/2007 at 20:18
Thanks for the link. It's hard to draw conclusions from this though. It could mean that they want to stay out of Iran and still turn up the pressure on Ahmadinedschad. Or these are preparations aimed to fuel the fire.
Gestalt on 25/2/2007 at 21:07
Quote Posted by Kolya
Could the US even afford a new war financially? And politically?
It would be an utterly disastrous move on both fronts, but that hasn't stopped them in the past.
Kolya on 25/2/2007 at 21:56
True. I shall make the political question a bit more specific as I meant inner politics: Can the republicans afford a new war if they intend to have any chance for a president of their own in 2008?
It's a bit hard to judge the political vibes from here. And this forum hasn't really reflected the balance in the past it seems. So I'm asking for an objective view by people who might know better than me.
Kaleid on 25/2/2007 at 22:08
Scott Ritter, former weapons inspector and author of Target Iran: The Truth About the White House’s Plans for Regime Change, says it is a deception that the U.S. government is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program or that they mean to use diplomacy to put an end to it, but instead is determined to have regime change in that country regardless. He also discusses some of the likely consequences if America does attack.
(
http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2007/02/20/scott-ritter/) (60min)
Wars against Iraq and Iran are part of a larger US strategy that would eventually include conflict with Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, Ritter says. Why? A main reason is that the US wants to dictate the growth of China and India. (about 27 min)
(
http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/154/47)
SY Hersh has warned that "something bad is going to happen."...
Ron Paul warned for another gulf of Tonkin event...
Brzezinski warns for a terrorist attack which will be blamed on Iran...
Yeah, they want war, despite no evidence of a weapons program.
Gillie on 25/2/2007 at 23:02
It could be a disaster of gigantic magnitude. The problems are still on going in Iraq.
(
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6395203.stm)
The Tehran authorities have denied state media reports that a test rocket had been fired into space - a move that could also mean huge advance in its ballistic missile programme. Tehran now says it was a sub-orbital research rocket.
Aerothorn on 25/2/2007 at 23:17
Quote Posted by Kolya
True. I shall make the political question a bit more specific as I meant
inner politics: Can the republicans afford a new war if they intend to have any chance for a president of their own in 2008?
It's a bit hard to judge the political vibes from here. And this forum hasn't really reflected the balance in the past it seems. So I'm asking for an objective view by people who might know better than me.
In any reasonable universe the Republicans already don't have a chance in 2008 - if they got any worse they would be spiraling themselves into the land of the Whigs.
Course it's not a reasonable universe, so far all I know they do have a chance - assuming the Dems screw things up as badly as they did the last two times. If they do have a competent campaign with a halfway-decent candidate, my money is on them winning.
I would say "a war in Iran would cost the republicans serious points" except that in the past, everyone has always loved a good, quick war, no matter how insane or illegal (see: Panama or Grenada).
Gestalt on 26/2/2007 at 01:01
Quote Posted by Aerothorn
In any reasonable universe the Republicans already don't have a chance in 2008 - if they got any worse they would be spiraling themselves into the land of the Whigs.
It's looking pretty likely that they'll lose in 2008, yes. If they start another unwinnable war now, they can blame the Democrats for either losing or pulling out when the next election rolls around. Then they can claim that if the Republicans had stayed in power, they would have won the war.
